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Stochastic modeling of the energy supply system with uncertain fuel price - A case of emerging technologies for distributed power generation
, Article Applied Energy ; Volume 93 , 2012 , Pages 668-674 ; 03062619 (ISSN) ; Saboohi, Y ; Sharif University of Technology
2012
Abstract
A deterministic energy supply model with bottom-up structure has limited capability in handling the uncertainties. To enhance the applicability of such a model in an uncertain environment two main issues have been investigated in the present paper. First, a binomial lattice is generated based on the stochastic nature of the source of uncertainty. Second, an energy system model (ESM) has been reformulated as a multistage stochastic problem. The result of the application of the modified energy model encompasses all uncertain outcomes together and enables optimal timing of capacity expansion. The performance of the model has been demonstrated with the help of a case study. The case study has...