Sharif Digital Repository

Given the importance of crude oil prices for businesses, governments and policy makers, this paper investigates predictability of oil prices using artificial neural networks taking into account the exhaustible nature of crude oil and impact of monetary policy along with other major drivers of crude oil prices. A multilayer perceptron neural network is developed and trained with historical data from 1980 to 2014 and using mean square error for testing data, optimal number of hidden layer neurons is determined and the designed MLP neural network is used for estimation of the forecasting model. Meanwhile, an economic model for crude oil prices is developed and estimated using a vector... 

Given the importance of crude oil prices for businesses, governments and policy makers, this paper investigates predictability of oil prices using artificial neural networks taking into account the exhaustible nature of crude oil and impact of monetary policy along with other major drivers of crude oil prices. A multilayer perceptron neural network is developed and trained with historical data from 1980 to 2014 and using mean square error for testing data, optimal number of hidden layer neurons is determined and the designed MLP neural network is used for estimation of the forecasting model. Meanwhile, an economic model for crude oil prices is developed and estimated using a vector... 

In this study, a chemometric strategy was developed for analysis of gas chromatographic (GC) and infrared spectroscopic (FT-IR) fingerprints of nine crude oil samples from the main oil wells of Iran to classify them and to find their origins. In this regard, a fractionation method based on saturated, aromatic, resin, and asphaltene (SARA) test was used. Then, these fractions were analyzed by GC-FID and GC–MS. Also, nine crude oil samples were analyzed by FT-IR. The obtained GC fingerprints were aligned using correlation optimized warping (COW) and auto-scaled, and then analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA). Evaluation of PCA scores plot... 

In this research work, Friction Theory and Free Volume Theory are applied to live oil characterized based on SARA TEST for viscosity modeling and make a new model in combination with two equation of state (PR and PC-SAFT). Parameters for pseudo-components are obtained by tuning the viscosity at atmospheric pressure and temperatures of 10, 20, and 40 ℃. A new fitting approach is suggested where the number of fitting parameters is 17 and 12 for FT and FVT model, respectively. These parameters are tuned using the Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization and make eight new models. The results show that PC-SAFT provides viscosity predictions for all models with less deviation from... 

In recent years, the behavior of crude oil interfacial tension (IFT) as a function of salt concentration have been investigated. The results found in literature are highly controversial, thus the current experimental study aimed to clarify the reasons behind this by developing a methodology based on extracting asphaltene and resin from three different crude oils and performing elemental analysis on them. In addition, the effect of salinity on the IFT of three studied crude oil was compared with the synthetic crude oil consisted of different weight percent (wt%) of asphaltene and resin in toluene. The obtained results revealed that the IFT of crude oil as a function of salinity depended not... 

Heavy and extra heavy crude oils usually have a high weight percentage of asphaltene, which could induce many problems during production to refining processes. Also, asphaltene has the main role on the high viscosity of the heavy and extra heavy crude oils. In this paper, the effects of asphaltene characteristics on the crude oil rheological properties have been experimentally and theoretically investigated using different classes of the suspension models. For experimental investigation, the asphaltene was first precipitated from the original heavy crude oil and then 10 well-defined reconstituted heavy oil samples are made by dispersing the asphaltene into the maltene (i.e., deasphalted... 

Oil production strategies define to a large extent the future of the world crude oil market. This paper aims at modelling the long-term world crude oil supply and demand, as well as the global oil price. The main assumption is that non-OPEC and OPEC oil producers act as price-taker and strategic players respectively. The world crude oil demand is modelled as a linear price dependent function. We compare four scenarios to diagnose the OPEC’s supply behaviour: “cartel”, “oligopoly”, “mixed-cartel” and “mixed-oligopoly”. A Mixed Complementarity Problem, MCP, is used to find the Nash equilibrium point of each game scenario. The OPEC countries maximize their individual total discounted profits in... 

The highly viscous property of heavy oil often causes problems in its transportation in pipelines. Mixing heavy oil with light oil as well as ultrasound treatment are viable solutions to this problem. In this study, extra heavy crude oil samples were first diluted with 0, 0.05, 0.1, and 0.15 mL/mL (0, 5, 10, and 15 vol%) of a light crude oil; then the mixture was irradiated by ultrasonic waves for 0, 5, 10, 15, and 20 min; finally the viscous shear functions of all mixtures was measured at different values of shear rate at different temperature levels. The results revealed that the minimum viscosity of the diluted extra heavy crude oil samples was obtained at 10 min of ultrasonic... 

Crude oil reservoirs have different temperatures, compositions, and pressures, therefore oil recovery performance by CO2 injection varies from one case to another. Furthermore, it is predicted that lower interfacial tension between injected CO2 and reservoir fluid results in more oil recovery. In this study, we investigate the effect of temperature on the equilibrium interfacial tension between CO2 and three different oil fluids at different pressures. Also minimum miscible pressure (MMP) is measured by the vanishing interfacial tension (VIT) technique to determine the temperature effect on the CO2 miscible gas injection. The results on different pure and mixtures of hydrocarbon fluids show... 

Crude oil density is an important thermodynamic property in simulation processes and design of equipment. Using laboratory methods to measure crude oil density is costly and time consuming; thus, predicting the density of crude oil using modeling is cost-effective. In this article, we develop a neural network-based model to predict the density of undersaturated crude oil. We compare our results with previous works and show that our method outperforms them  

Although the capability of using sulfate anion as a wettability modiffier is well established, no systematic investigation on the effect of sulfate ions and natural surfactants in the crude oil including asphaltene and resin on the interfacial tension (IFT) of acidic crude oil (ACO)/sulfate were performed. In this regards, the fluid/fluid interactions are tested through the IFT measurements for ACO, asphaltene and resin extracted from ACO in the presence of sulfate salts including Na2SO4, MgSO4 and CaSO4 while the concentration of each salt ranges between 0 and 45000 ppm. The obtained results demonstrate that the capability of asphaltene molecules is higher for IFT reduction compared with... 

The effects of CO2 and salt type on the interfacial tension (IFT) between crude oil and carbonated brine (CB) have not been fully understood. This study focuses on measuring the dynamic IFT between acidic crude oil with a total acid number of 1.5 mg KOH/g and fully CO2-saturated aqueous solutions consisting of 15,000 ppm of KCl, NaCl, CaCl2 and MgCl2 at 30 °C and a wide range of pressures (500–4000 psi). The results of IFT measurements showed that solvation of CO2 into all the studied aqueous solutions led to an increase in IFT of acidic crude oil (i.e., comparison of IFT of crude oil/CB and crude oil/brine), while no significant effect was observed for pressure. In contrast, the obtained... 

Improving oil recovery and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions are two important attractive features of CO2-enriched water injection into oil reservoirs. Regarding these unique features, the main objective of this study was concentrated to evaluate the swelling behavior of crude oil as a fundamental mechanism of carbonated water (CW) flooding. To achieve these goals, the swelling and Bond number of light and heavy crude oils (namely LCO and HCO, respectively) are measured and compared to each other. The results obtained from the measured swelling factors of crude oil/CW show some complicated behaviors. That is, as temperature increases the swelling factor decreases at low pressure... 

Interfacial tension (IFT) as one of the main properties for efficient CO2 flooding planning in oil reservoirs depends strongly on pressure, temperature, and composition of the reservoir fluids. Therefore, it is important to measure this property at real reservoir conditions for successful field development plan. In this study, an axisymmetric drop shape analysis (ADSA) has been utilized to measure the equilibrium IFTs between crude oil and CO2 at different temperatures and pressures. Moreover, minimum miscibility pressures (MMP) and first-contact miscibility pressures (P max) of crude oil/CO2 systems at different temperatures are determined by applying the vanishing interfacial tension (VIT)... 

The presence of asphaltene means additional difficulties related to transport and processing due to the increased crude oil viscosity caused by the asphaltene. For a better knowledge of the flow properties of asphaltene containing crude oils, it is necessary to understand how asphaltene affects the rheological properties. The aim of this article is to provide information on such rheological properties of oil-asphaltene slurry systems. The results of rheological experiments show that the non-Newtonian flow curves can be approximated by the Bingham plastic model to determine the apparent viscosity and the yield stress as a function of asphaltene concentration and temperature. An explanation is... 

The interfacial tension (IFT) of a crude oil/CO2 system is recognized as the main property affecting the efficiency of CO2 flooding during an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) process. The addition of a paraffin group hydrocarbon to asphaltenic crude oils as an asphaltene precipitant component is aimed to mimic the asphaltene precipitation process during crude oil production and transportation. Asphaltene precipitation would critically affect the interfacial behavior of crude oil/CO2 systems. In the first part of this study, the equilibrium densities of oil samples which contain n-heptane at different ratios were measured over varying pressures at 323 K. Then, the equilibrium IFT between CO2 and... 

In the upstream asphaltene flow assurance community, both academics and industries are actively involved to predict the asphaltene deposit profile in wellbores and pipelines. Essential information for such a study is the amount of asphaltenes that can precipitate and, hence, deposit. In this work, the perturbed chain form of the statistical associating fluid theory (PC-SAFT) is applied to predict the asphaltene precipitation onset condition as well as the amount of precipitate under pressure depletion and high-pressure and high-temperature gas injection conditions. Previous PC-SAFT asphaltene studies in crude oil required the compositional data for both flashed gas and flashed liquid. This... 

Viscosity of crude oil is a fundamental factor in simulating reservoirs, forecasting production as well as planning thermal enhanced oil recovery methods which make its accurate determination necessary. Experimental determination of reservoir oil viscosity is costly and time consuming. Hence, searching for quick and accurate determination of reservoir oil viscosity is inevitable. The objective of this study is to present a reliable, and predictive model namely, Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) to predict reservoir oil viscosity. To this end, three LSSVM models have been developed for prediction of reservoir oil viscosity in the three regions including, under-saturated, saturated... 

In this study, the artificial neural network (ANN) was used for the prediction of WDT. The inputs to network are molar mass and pressure, and the output is WDT at each input. A two-layer network with different hidden neurons and different learning algorithms such as LM, SCG, GDA and BR were examined. The network with 16 hidden neurons and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) train function showed the best results in comparison with the other networks. Also, the predicted results of this network were compared with the thermodynamic models and better accordance with experimental data for ANN was concluded