Sharif Digital Repository

The probability of failure estimation of composite structures under applied loads is an inevitable requirement given the uncertainties related to the material properties, loads, and boundary conditions. The properties of composite materials have more scatter due to non-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, and manufacturing defects. In this paper, the reliability of S2-Glass/Epoxy laminate composite materials containing a central circular hole under static tensile load is presented. Failure in fiber-reinforced plastic structures, since individual faults in each ply cannot be traced, is a random process due to the scatter caused by the behavior of the material. According to the... 

The probability of failure estimation of composite structures under applied loads is an inevitable requirement given the uncertainties related to the material properties, loads, and boundary conditions. The properties of composite materials have more scatter due to non-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, and manufacturing defects. In this paper, the reliability of S2-Glass/Epoxy laminate composite materials containing a central circular hole under static tensile load is presented. Failure in fiber-reinforced plastic structures, since individual faults in each ply cannot be traced, is a random process due to the scatter caused by the behavior of the material. According to the... 

Accurate implementation of river interactions with subsurface water is critical in large-scale hydrologic models with a constant horizontal grid resolution when models apply kinematic wave approximation for both hillslope and river channel flow. The size of rivers can vary greatly in the model domain, and the implemented grid resolution is too coarse to accurately account for river interactions. Consequently, the flow velocity is underestimated when the width of the rivers is much narrower than the selected grid size. This leads to inaccuracy and uncertainties in calculations of water quantities. In addition, the rate of exfiltration and infiltration between the river and the subsurface may... 

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present a new efficient method for the tolerance–reliability analysis and quality control of complex nonlinear assemblies where explicit assembly functions are difficult or impossible to extract based on Bayesian modeling. Design/methodology/approach: In the proposed method, first, tolerances are modelled as the random uncertain variables. Then, based on the assembly data, the explicit assembly function can be expressed by the Bayesian model in terms of manufacturing and assembly tolerances. According to the obtained assembly tolerance, reliability of the mechanical assembly to meet the assembly requirement can be estimated by a proper first-order... 

Marine structures are typically sensitive to the direction of wind and waves, especially in extreme metocean conditions. The extreme metocean conditions and their associated predicted directions are not easily reachable from traditional design methodologies. In this research, the most probable combinations of different extreme metocean conditions along with their associated direction are predicted for the HyWind Scotland wind farm, Scotland. To achieve this, the Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling approach is applied to define the Joint Probability Distribution Function (JPDF) of four combinations of metocean parameters, including wave direction, wind direction and wind-wave misalignment. The... 

Rammed earth (RE) structures are widely used for more sustainable and environment-friendly buildings. Due to lack of design standards, the engineering decisions often rely on rule-of-thumb method which may lead to quite conservative or unsafe designs. In this study, load and resistance parameters were treated as random variables in reliability analysis. The reliability index and failure probability of RE structures were evaluated using First-Order-Reliability-Method (FORM) and then compared with Second-Order-Reliability-Method (SORM) and Monte Carlo Sampling method. The analysis was performed based on the different a) load combinations, b) wall geometry, c) material type (unstabilized or... 

The first-order reliability method (FORM) is a well-known procedure for reliability analysis in the engineering community. It provides an efficient way to calculate the failure probability of a structure. However, it introduces an unknown error in the estimations for non-linear limit states. This paper seeks a correction for the FORM by employing Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method combines the efficiency of FORM with the robustness of the Monte Carlo method. The merits of the proposed method are illustrated through benchmark examples. The results show the high accuracy of the proposed method and a substantial reduction in the number of samples compared with crude Monte Carlo. ©... 

Time-varying structural reliability of a multistage solid-propellant launch vehicle subjected to deterministic and stochastic loads is investigated. The study is of practical importance because the launch vehicle's structure is influenced by a combination of external aerodynamics as well as inertial and internal ballistic loads emanating from the solid rocket motors. In addition, as launch-vehicle flight conditions change during flight, the vehicle will be subjected to time-varying loads. In this sense, the environmental, aerodynamic, and internal pressure fluctuations can be interpreted as stochastic forces affecting the launch-vehicle structural reliability. To account for temporal... 

This paper presents probabilistic models and methods for detailed seismic risk analysis of structures using structural reliability methods. This approach to risk analysis is an alternative to those that employ the theorem of total probability and conditional probability distributions. Detailed risk analysis entails probabilistic quantification of responses, the ensuing damage of individual structural and nonstructural components, and the resulting economic and social losses. Such an analysis requires a library of probabilistic models for hazards, responses, damage, repair cost, downtime, and casualty with a specific format as presented in this paper. Two analysis options are proposed: one... 

Computational cost is one of the major obstacles for detailed risk analysis of structures. This paper puts forward a methodology for efficient probabilistic seismic loss assessment of structures using the Endurance Time (ET) analysis and the first-order reliability method (FORM). The ET analysis efficiently yields the structural responses for a continuous range of intensities through a single response-history analysis. Taking advantage of this property of ET, FORM is employed to estimate the annual rate of exceedance for the loss components. The proposed approach is an amalgamation of two analysis approaches, ET and FORM, that significantly lower the computational costs. This makes it... 

Climate change affects temperature, magnitude, and also the duration of the Urban Heat Island (UHI), which has severe impacts on the environment, communities, and the people's lives. This study evaluates UHI formation in the city of Tehran (Iran) using a reliability framework, which is able to include related uncertainties into the modeling procedure. First, 2 km air temperature field from Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model is downscaled to a 50 m grid spacing using a probabilistic downscaling method, which combines inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation and a Bayesian regression model. This downscaling method not only can produce a long record of the fine resolution of the... 

Utilizing ground-based measurements to obtain water budget components, especially in large scale basins, is challenging due to the limitation in the spatiotemporal availability of in-situ data. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic framework for estimating water budgets in low runoff regions using remote sensing products. By studying water budgets in the Central Basin of Iran (CBI) over 8 years period (2009–2016), we investigate the locations and time scales at which the water budget calculated from satellite products provides most closure. To this end, we use precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), evapotranspiration from the Water Productivity Open Access... 

Extensive recent researches have been underway to model the fracture mechanics degradation based on continuum damage mechanics (CDM) technique. CDM theory is a powerful tool for solving problems such as large plastic deformations that the fracture mechanics is unable to solve. This model is derived by means of the thermodynamics internal variable theory and based on the experimental results on material properties. In this paper, the reliability of rectangular plates containing a central circular hole under static tensile load using the CDM approach for ductile fracture has been studied. To investigate the initiation and evolution of damages, anisotropic damage expressed by second order... 

Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a...