Sharif Digital Repository

The main question of this research is this: what mechanisms drive the increase of the share of health costs in GDP in Germany? Answering this question not only improves our understanding about health systems in general, but also is specifically useful for the health system of Iran, since it is experiencing similar trends as the health system of Germany does. Since these mechanisms are complex and the ability of human brain to process several interacting variables simultaneously is low, we need a strong methodology and a tool to overcome this limitation. System thinking as a methodology and system dynamics as its tool help us do so. Using system dynamics, we will develop a computer model... 

The seasonal fluctuations in economics variables relate to the different behavior of economic agents across different seasons. In past, seasonality has been viewed as a redundant feature that needs to be removed from data before economic analysis. From 1988, modeling seasonality has become the major concern of many economists; moreover, it was seen that many economic analysis and forecasts could be flawed if seasonality is ignored. In the present research, periodic times series approach is used for the first time in modeling the seasonality feature of the housing market. Regarding the importance of the housing sector in economy from micro and macroeconomic points of view, using a more... 

Developing and progressing excavation technology, and distillation and petroleum technology as fuel cause chemical and hydrocarbonic materials have been given an important role in human life. Having petroleum expanded, its effect in countries’ economics has been highlighted and found a substantial role in countries’ development. Iran, considering 11% extractable petroleum reserves which is equivalent to 138 billion barrel, is known as an oil rich country. The petroleum has an eminent role in country’s economics and is the main country’s income source and the most important exports. With regard to the high technology needed for petroleum exploration and purification, Iran requires foreign... 

Establishing an efficient free trade agreement (FTA) requires some conditions in both trading partners. The median voter approach insists on the direction of general interests (identified by the utility of a median voter) to explain how two countries may agree to sign an FTA. At the other side, lobbying approach emphasizes on the role of interest groups (groups with a large influence on the public decisions) in forming FTAs. Taking into account the theoretically based and empirically robust foundation of the median voter approach, we rely on it to investigate the major determinants of free trade agreements in the case of ECO countries besides all their main trade partners. The database... 

This research uses the Comovement between electronic payment data with GDP growth rate and private consumption growth rate to nowcast these two important macroeconomics variables. We use point of sale data set from the beginning of 1392 to the end of autumn of 1395 in monthly frequency in mixed data sampling model to use the Comovement for Nowcasting. Besides, we use two other data set, sale of industrial electricity and sale of agricultural electricity. All of this data set gives a real time sense of macroeconomics. They are also free of mistake. We show that using of this data set in the frame of MIDAS can decrease the root mean square forecast error (RMSFE) relative to auto regressive... 

Risk management is one of the most important topics in banking. Risk management in banking is divided to several categories including credit risk. Credit risk is also divided to individual credit risk and portfolio credit risk. In Iran many of banks have worked on individual credit risk models, but few of them have worked on portfolio models because these models have developed only in recent years. In our project we present three categories of credit risk models and then analyze the data of a private bank in Iran with CreditPortfolioView model. In CreditPortfolioView model, macroeconomic parameters are used to analyze the correlated behavior of individuals as a benchmark in different... 

Exchange rate is one of the macroeconomic variables that can affect domestic product, economic growth and unemployment. Since macroeconomics wants to explain inflation, unemployment and economic growth, exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables. In economic literature, many studies have been performed to investigate the linkage between Real Exchange Rate (RER) and other real economic variables (such as domestic product, unemployment, etc.). In this study, we first construct the RER for the economy of Iran and then, using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), short-run and long-run relations between RER and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is evaluated.
The results of... 

In the Iranian economy, the unemployment rate has always been volatile and double-digit, and this has had a devastating effect on people's livelihoods and the welfare of society. Therefore, job creation has always been the main concern of policymakers. To increase employment, based on the Okun's law, the output must be increased. Since from an economic point of view, economic growth should be accompanied by employment growth and there should be a positive relationship between the employment growth rate and the country's economic growth rate. But in 1384 to 1398, the Iranian labor market has experienced a puzzling behavior in terms of the growth of the total number of employees and the growth... 

The construction industry is one of the most important economic sectors, which shares a major part of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment. In Iran many development projects are designed and implemented annually which billions of Rials are due as a result of construction and operation for executive bodies. The Organization for Development, Renovation and Equipping Schools (ODRES) as the executive branch of the Ministry of Education, is one of the largest construction bodies which undertakes construction of hundreds of educational, cultural and athletic projects annually. Given that the project delivery methods and the need to choose the correct method of contract payments exerts great... 

Sustainable development of the energy system requires policies for ensuring reliable access to energy services with the lowest economic and environmental costs. Despite owning abundant reserves of fossil resources, Iran has witnessed an imbalance in the supply and demand of energy carriers, especially gas, gasoline, and electricity, over the past years. Within a comprehensive and detailed research, the optimal pattern of utilizing non-renewable energy resources along with renewables is evaluated in the context of sustainable energy development. The developed tool based on the integrated assessment approach can be used as a scientific analytic measure for the implementation of the desired...