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Importance measures (IMs) are used for risk-informed decision making in system operations, safety, and maintenance. Traditionally, they are computed within fault tree (FT) analysis. Although FT analysis is a powerful tool to study the reliability and structural characteristics of systems, Bayesian networks (BNs) have shown explicit advantages in modeling and analytical capabilities. In this paper, the traditional definitions of IMs are extended to BNs in order to have more capability in terms of system risk modeling and analysis. Implementation results on a case study illustrate the capability of finding the most important components in a system. © 2018 World Scientific Publishing Company  

Importance measures are integral parts of risk assessment for risk-informed decision making. Because the parameters of a risk model, such as the component failure rates, are functions of time and a perturbation (change) in their values can occur during the mission time, time dependence must be considered in the evaluation of the importance measures. In this paper, it is shown that the change in system performance at time t, and consequently the importance of the parameters at time t, depends on the parameters perturbation time and their value functions during the system mission time. We consider a nonhomogeneous continuous time Markov model of a series-parallel system to propose the... 

Probabilistic analyses of a wide-area measurement system (WAMS) would require equivalent reliability models for its components which include phasor measurement units (PMUs). In this paper, the reliability modeling of PMU is proposed and the proposed model is extended to consider options for the PMU hardware. The Markov process is employed to analyze the proposed model and to present an equivalent two-state model of PMUs. Reliability parameters of PMU are estimated with major difficulties associated with limited and uncertain data. In this paper, uncertainties are taken into account to achieve more realistic estimates of PMU characteristics. Fuzzy sets along with reliability analyses and... 

Probabilistic analyses of a wide-area measurement system (WAMS) would require equivalent reliability models for its components which include phasor measurement units (PMUs). In this paper, the reliability modeling of PMU is proposed and the proposed model is extended to consider options for the PMU hardware. The Markov process is employed to analyze the proposed model and to present an equivalent two-state model of PMUs. Reliability parameters of PMU are estimated with major difficulties associated with limited and uncertain data. In this paper, uncertainties are taken into account to achieve more realistic estimates of PMU characteristics. Fuzzy sets along with reliability analyses and... 

Heavy-duty gas turbines are usually devised in power plants to generate electrical energy. Sudden failure in any of its parts or subdivisions will result in a decrement of the efficiency of the system or emergency shutdown of the system. The highest risk of failure in these turbines is subjected to the hot gas path (HGP) of the turbine. Due to the existence of uncertainty in diagnosing process or damage growth, in this research, a modified risk-based probabilistic failure analysis model using Bayesian networks (BN) was developed. First, a failure model was developed using the Fault Tree Analysis, and then it is transformed into a BN model. This model is capable of predicting and diagnosing... 

Application of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) to a Uranium hexafluoride (UF 6) production process is presented in this paper. The process is constituted from three main units: UF 4 conversion to UF 6, condensation of produced UF 6 gas and tail gas treatment. Radioactive gas is present in all parts of the process and occurrence of high pressure or high temperature in the process equipments may lead to radioactive release to workplace and environment. The work is mainly based on PSA experience in nuclear power plants. Accordingly for the process, eight group of Initiating Events (IE) that lead to UF 6 gas release have been identified using HAZOP study. For each IE, based on related...