Sharif Digital Repository

This thesis proposes a probabilistic modeling framework for networked infrastructure systems in community resilience analysis. In particular, the framework is presented for the electric power infrastructure. Models are proposed at two levels of refinement. The basic model only determines the connectivity of different elements in the network, whereas the refined model also quantifies the amount of the power transmitted through the network elements. In a community resilience analysis, the proposed basic model provides a rather simple tool to determine those buildings and infrastructure systems that suffer from power outage when the supplying power station loses connectivity with the network.... 

This thesis proposes a probabilistic framework to increase situational awareness about serviceability of infrastructure systems, and extend and distribution of losses in the posthazard state of communities. Maintaining situational awareness is the first and foremost step in prioritizing search and rescue operations and organizing resources. This is a challenging task due to the uncertainties that exist in infrastructure systems’ performance after occurrence of a hazardous event. These uncertainties gradually diminish as further information is received. Therefore, a probabilistic framework is the necessary element for disaster management. This framework must be able to update initial beliefs... 

In the last few decades due to technological progress and more attention to cost reduction of production, production systems have become more automated than before. By increasing the role of machines in manufacturing systems maintenance systems have become more important. One of the factors that influence the complexity of maintenance problem in real world is the interdependency of components in a system. Interacting cooperation between these components intensifies the complexity of the problem’s modeling as well as its optimizing. This complexity result in few studies that have been performed in this field. Thus these works can be broken into two main subjects. In the first case a system... 

The airline market has always been highly complex and requires that rigorous strategic planning is put in place for achieving maximum growth and profitability. In addition, the direct connection of people with aviation has increased the complexity of its behavior and the widespread public demand for air transport has made this market more competitive. As a result, any decision on the development of the airline requires strategic planning. Strategic decision making in this area is a complex process requiring knowledge of this industry’ structure and planning on the basis of proper knowledge. It is obvious that when we are researching a system that is in great interaction with humans and... 

Infrastructure systems play a critical role in the economic and social activities of a community. Effective and continuous performance of these infrastructure systems is essential to the welfare and prosperity of the communities. Infrastructure systems comprise networks of interdependent assets that are built through a long and costly process. These assets are subject to a variety of factors that reduce the performance and reliability over time. These factors also increase the vulnerability of infrastructure assets in face of future probable hazards. In order to ensure the continuous and uninterrupted performance of infrastructure assets in post-hazard situations, asset managers should plan... 

This study proposes a probabilistic framework to quantitatively evaluate the resilience of a community comprising a building stock, commercial facilities, and interdependent infrastructure systems. To this end, the proposed framework employs Monte Carlo sampling in which each sample comprises multiple stages. The sample starts with the occurrence of a hazard event. It then follows by evaluating the consequences incurred by the community in the face of the hazard event. It is concluded by simulating the operations aimed at complete recovery of the community comprising inspection, rescue and relief, restoration, and recovery. For this purpose, chains of interacting probabilistic models are... 

The emergence of online social networks (OSN) has encouraged scientists to investigate them more deeply due to availability of excessive data and increased computational power. Diffusion is a fundamental process taking place in such networks. The spread of news, ideas, influence and diseases are examples of diffusion in social networks. The importance of information diffusion in different disciplines such as economics, politics and social behavior has motivated us to study diffusion networks in this thesis. Diffusion’s behavior is strongly influenced by the underlying network in social networks. Despite this fact most research done in this area ignores the dynamics of the underlying network.... 

This study provides a probabilistic framework for assessing and quantifying flood damage to infrastructure. This framework models the state of the community's infrastructure after the occurrence of possible floods in five steps. The first step is to model the hazard using a set of models that determine the characteristics of potential floods. The second step is to model and estimate the damage to community buildings and infrastructure. In the third step, infrastructure serviceability is modeled. The infrastructures that are modeled in this study are water distribution network, power network, transportation networks and industrial facilities for processing agricultural products. In the fourth... 

This research proposes a probabilistic framework for decision support in emergency response. Currently, decision-making is traditionally based on data from reconnaissance teams, while there are other information sources that assist decision-making. These sources of information include social sensors, physical sensors, aerial imaging, and crowdsourcing. The information obtained from these sources is heterogeneous and uncertain, requires a probabilistic data fusion framework to be used in decision making. This research employs Bayesian Networks for this purpose. The outstanding feature of the Bayesian Network is its real-time nature, which set apart it from other methods. This feature makes... 

In this study, community resilience after a disaster is optimally enhanced for interdependent infrastructures through prioritization of recovery operations considering limited resources. Optimal enhancement of community resilience can be performed at two levels: Pre-disaster and Post-disaster. In the pre-disaster level, resilience enhancement is achieved through optimization of long-term decision making that includes optimized allocation of resources to retrofit of buildings. However, in the post-disaster response and recovery period, allocating resources to retrofit or backup systems is infeasible. Therefore, in the post-disaster level considered in this study, resilience enhancement is... 

This thesis extends a probabilistic framework for evaluating the seismic resilience of communities by modeling the transportation system. The framework that is being extended is under continuous development at the Center for Infrastructure Sustainability and Resilience Research (INSURER) at Sharif University of Technology quantifies community resilience by integrating hazard models, risk models, and recovery models within an agent-based simulation. In this framework, the transportation system is modeled by developing a library of probabilistic models to predict the occurrence and intensity of earthquake hazard, damage and capacity of network components, network travel demand, and economic,... 

The aim of this study is to quantify the social impacts of infrastructure failure for community resilience after seismic hazards with the focus on Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Many studies have investigated the failure of infrastructures and their interdependencies for community resilience; however, there is a lack of comprehensive quantitative resilience framework considering social interactions along with lifelines. The upcoming research is based on the Rtx framework, which was developed at Sharif University of Technology for community resilience analysis. In the mentioned framework, the performance of different community infrastructures is simulated using probabilistic and... 

This research develops a probabilistic framework for evaluating community resilience subject to earthquake events by modeling the water distribution system and its prevailing inter- and intra-dependencies with other infrastructure systems of the community. This framework is entitled “Rtx,” which is under continuous development at the Center for Infrastructure Sustainability and Resilience Research (INSURER) at Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. It quantifies the community resilience by integrating hazard models, risk models, and recovery models within an agent-based simulation. Comprehensive modeling of the water distribution system requires a library of probabilistic models,... 

The aim of this research is to examine and propose solutions for financing projects aimed at reducing vulnerability in the oil industry's infrastructure against earthquakes and enhancing their seismic resilience. Design and construction issues, as well as the gradual deterioration of oil infrastructure, increase their vulnerability to earthquakes. Earthquakes can disrupt the proper and continuous functioning of these infrastructures by causing damage. Such disruptions or interruptions in the performance of oil industry infrastructure can have significant economic and social consequences. To mitigate these damages, investment in vulnerability reduction measures is essential. Financing...