Sharif Digital Repository

In the present paper, the author has attempted to examine fatigue life of automotive safety components under axial variable amplitude loading conditions. To this end, the time components of stress tensor in the critical area of the knuckle and Liu-Zenner criterion were used to calculate the time history of equivalent stress. Then, the probability distribution function (PDF) of stress was extracted by applying the stress level counting technique. The Fourier curve fitting method was employed in order to formulate the PDF. Subsequently, the fatigue life of the component was estimated using the probabilistic approach. Finally, the results of the higher order of Fourier curve fitting and... 

A Bayesian framework for 3-D human pose estimation from monocular images based on sparse representation (SR) is introduced. Our probabilistic approach aims at simultaneously learning two overcomplete dictionaries (one for the visual input space and the other for the pose space) with a shared sparse representation. Existing SR-based pose estimation approaches only offer a point estimation of the dictionary and the sparse codes. Therefore, they might be unreliable when the number of training examples is small. Our Bayesian framework estimates a posterior distribution for the sparse codes and the dictionaries from labeled training data. Hence, it is robust to overfitting on small-size training... 

Spectrum mobility in cognitive radio networks not only enables the secondary users to guarantee the desired QoS of the primary users but also grants an efficient exploitation of the available spectrum holes in the network. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic approach in determining the initial and target channels for the handoff procedure in a single secondary user network. To characterize the network, a queuing theoretical framework is introduced, and 'stay' and 'change' handoff policies are both addressed. The performance of the secondary user in terms of average sojourn and extended service times for secondary connections is analyzed, and convex optimization problems with the... 

In this paper, we address aircraft conflict detection on a mid-term horizon. We adopt a probabilistic approach and provide a simple method to estimate the probability of two aircraft getting closer than some minimum predefined distance, based on a commonly adopted Gaussian model of the deviation from their planned trajectories. A key feature of our method is that the probability estimate is accompanied by a deterministic accuracy certificate. This is achieved by adopting a geometric approach to conflict probability estimation and jointly computing a lower and an upper bound on the conflict probability. These bounds can be inspected and refined if the resulting accuracy of the probability... 

A known theorem in probability is adopted and through a probabilistic approach, it is generalized to develop a method for generating random deviates from the distribution of any continuous random variable. This method, which may be considered as an approximate version of the Inverse Transform algorithm, takes two random numbers to generate a random deviate, while maintaining all the other advantages of the Inverse Transform method, such as the possibility of generating ordered as well as correlated deviates and being applicable to all density functions, regardless of their parameter values. © Sharif University of Technology, October 2008  

This paper describes an approach to mid-term probabilistic conflict detection between two aircraft flying at the same altitude. The key distinguishing feature of the proposed method is that it analytically estimates the conflict probability, in the presence of a fully correlated wind field. The method uses a two-step approach. First, the mean and the covariance of the aircraft relative position are computed analytically. Then, the conflict probability is estimated such that a desired level of accuracy is obtained. Numerical results, conducted using a simulator incorporating a fully correlated wind field model, show the effectiveness of the approach versus the competitors. Finally,... 

Monte Carlo simulation provides a probabilistic approach to evaluate the physical behavior of infrastructures. Therefore, the performance could be achieved in a more realistic manner. Within this framework, an innovative software code is developed by combining the Monte Carlo and finite difference methods to predict the behavior of embankment dams after impounding. In order to assess the efficiency of the method, the case study of Chahnimeh-4 dam, located at Southeast of Iran, has been investigated in detail. The behavior of this dam is predicted and compared with the field monitoring by using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results indicate the robustness of the proposed method and it can... 

The QoS attributes of Grid services play important roles in several tasks in Grid computing such as QoS-aware service composition, service negotiation, resource management, service discovery and scheduling. By considering the dynamic aspects of the Grid environments and also the uncertainty related to Grid services, in this paper, we present BNQM, a Bayesian network based probabilistic QoS Model for Grid service composition. Application of Bayesian network in QoS management makes it possible to indicate the conditional independence relationships among QoS attributes and to provide an effective probabilistic approach to predict new values for some QoS attributes while others are changed.... 

In this letter we introduce an effective tool to demonstrate signal power behavior of a typical spectrallyencoded spread-time (SE/ST) CDMA system using probabilistic approach. By denning power level profile (PLP), as the probability of stretching instantaneous power from a pre-specified threshold, we can find novel upper bounds on the signal power profile. We discuss various properties owing to PLP and elaborate on the main parameters affecting the PLP value. We present three theorems, propose some simple upper bounds on the PLP, and give an insight on the main contributions of the results. We introduce a fundamental parameter, namely β, as a key design parameter which relates the most... 

This paper seeks to provide a probabilistic control framework, named Probabilistic Multiple-Horizon Multiple-Model Predictive Control, for the soft and precise landing on an asteroid. The modified version of the Predictive Path Planning method is also introduced to generate a safe and smooth reference trajectory for landing. The Probabilistic Multiple-Horizon Multiple-Model Predictive Control is carried out in two phases; the offline phase to calculate the difference between models, and the online phase to use a probabilistic approach to track the reference trajectory. The difference of the dynamical models is utilized in the online control method to compensate the accuracy of the... 

Microscopic Visualization of the porous media can provide valuable information to enhance understanding of pore-scale transport phenomena. Here, a micromodel which its grains and pores are non-uniform in size, shape and distribution is considered as porous medium. The pore size distribution as well as pore length distribution was extracted by applying an image analysis technique. A two-dimensional random network model of the micromodel has been constructed which the nonuniformity is considered by assigning measured distribution functions. The random particle method was applied for correlating and predicting dispersion coefficients based on probabilistic approaches. Statistical derivations... 

Oil spills are serious environmental issues that potentially can cause adverse effects on marine ecosystems. In some marine areas, like the Baltic Sea, there is a large number of wrecks from the first half of the 20th century, and recent monitoring and field work have revealed release of oil from some of these wrecks. The risk posed by a wreck is governed by its condition, hazardous substances contained in the wreck and the state of the surrounding environment. Therefore, there is a need for a common standard method for estimating the risks associated with different wrecks. In this work a state-of-the-art model is presented for spatial and stochastic risk assessment of oil spills from... 

This paper investigates a reliability-centered approach for the placement procedure of remote terminal units (RTUs) in power distribution systems. Entire attempt is contributed to incorporate the practical aspects interrelated with the problem, e.g. the accessibility to the candidate substations, the load point criticality, as well as the load probabilistic behavior and consequently the inevitable variation in the electricity price. The placement process is done through an optimization problem wherein the common reliability indices, as the decisive factors in the placement process, are going to be minimized. The approach is successfully applied to a real power distribution feeder of Iran's... 

Microscopic visualization of a porous medium can provide valuable information to enhance understanding of pore-scale transport phenomena. In this work, a novel and unique approach is provided to combine experimentally measured pore-size distribution with theoretical statistical analysis to predict longitudinal and transverse dispersion coefficients. The approach presented can be easily extended to predict other fluid-flow parameters through porous media, such as permeability, and capillary pressure. Here, a micromodel is considered as a porous medium. The grains and pores of the micromodel are nonuniform in size, shape, and distribution. The pore-size distribution, as well as pore-length... 

This paper revisits the phenomenon of dynamic soil-structure interaction (SSI) with a probabilistic approach. For this purpose, a twofold objective is pursued. First, the effect of SSI on inelastic response of the structure is studied considering the prevailing uncertainties. Second, the consequence of practicing SSI provisions of the current seismic design codes on the structural performance is investigated in a probabilistic framework. The soil-structure system is modeled by the sub-structure method. The uncertainty in the properties of the soil and the structure is described by random variables that are input to this model. Monte Carlo sampling analysis is employed to compute the... 

This paper studies the effect of soil–structure interaction (SSI) on the seismic risk estimates of buildings. Risk, in this context, denotes the probability distribution of seismic monetary loss due to structural and nonstructural damage. The risk analysis here uncovers the probability that SSI is beneficial, detrimental, or uninfluential on seismic losses. The analyses are conducted for a wide range of buildings with different structural systems, numbers of stories, and foundation sizes on various soil types. A probabilistic approach is employed to account for prevailing sources of uncertainty, i.e., those in ground motion and in the properties of the soil–structure system. In this... 

Considering the high level of interactions between energy and reserve markets, simultaneous clearing of these markets has been shown to provide more efficient solutions, than a sequential market clearing process. In addition, determining reserve requirements based on probabilistic approaches results in more economical efficiency, while maintaining an acceptable level of reliability, compared to deterministic approaches. This paper proposes a new method for clearing energy and spinning reserve markets simultaneously, while at the same time, spinning reserve requirements are determined based on a cost/benefit analysis as a probabilistic-based approach. This cost/benefit analysis considers both... 

In many countries, there are traditional houses made of stone, adobe and brick, which perform relatively weakly in earthquakes. To mitigate casualties in future earthquakes, it is necessary to evaluate the current status of these buildings and propose effective methods to retrofit them. One method of evaluating the performance of buildings in earthquakes is through the use of fragility curves. These diagrams show the probability of exceeding a specific state of damage versus seismic intensity parameters, such as PGA, MMI, la, CAV etc. Fragility curves will provide an important basis for analytical methods, based on probabilistic approaches. Much work has been done on bridges, concrete and... 

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to reveal the negative consequences of overlooking code calibration when adopting the provisions of nonindigenous building codes in design. A taxonomy of the national building codes of various countries whose provisions are adopted from one or more original standards is first presented. Next, the reliability-based approach to quantify the lack of safety that may arise due to the absence of code calibration is presented. This approach is then applied to the case study of the National Building Code of Iran, whose load and resistance factors are directly adopted from ASCE/SEI 7. To this end, seven steel building archetypes with various structural... 

The aim of this study is to investigate the most important drivers of environmental impacts and identify the influence of parameters on the uncertainty of the environmental impacts in various climate zones and future climate scenarios. We couple a combined greenhouse energy demand-yield simulation tool with a life cycle assessment to identify the drivers for greenhouse energy, water and CO2 demand as well as yield production. Environmental impacts are evaluated using the methods of IPPC for assessing climate change and available water remaining (AWARE) for water scarcity impacts. Furthermore, we compare the results for all five main climate world regions. With a global sensitivity analysis,...