Sharif Digital Repository

Construction managers regularly monitor projects to ensure that the project performance is under control. The earned value method (EVM) is a widely used tool to forecast project cost and time at completion. However, the effectiveness of the EVM in forecasting schedule performance has been questioned particularly because of its inability to address the associated uncertainties and poor performance in predicting project duration. The objective of this study is to present an activity-based model to conduct a probabilistic assessment and estimation of schedule performance in repetitive construction projects. This model, called the Weibull evaluation and forecasting model (WEFM), emphasizes the... 

Here, using the probabilistic evaluation based on the Monte Carlo method, back-flashover rate and shielding failure flashover rate of 230 kV overhead transmission lines in the western regions of Iran are evaluated. To such an aim, first, the number of thunderstorm days per year is collected from the reported weather information in order to determine the ground flash density. Then, using MRU-200 equipment, the tower-footing resistance of several towers is measured. Matlab® software is used in order to produce lightning surges considering its probabilistic nature and randomly distribution on the ground to evaluate striking distance based on the geometric model. Then, calculated parameters are... 

This paper reveals the consequences of practicing the 2015 National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) soilstructure interaction (SSI) provisions, which form the basis of the 2016 edition of the seismic design standard provided by the ASCE. For this purpose, the probability that the practice of SSI provisions, in lieu of fixed-base provisions, increases the ductility demand of the structure computed. It is subsequently investigated whether the NEHRP provisions are indeed an improvement upon the SSI provisions of the current ASCE seismic design standard. To this end, 720 soil-structure systems with different numbers of stories, structural systems, aspect ratios, and foundation... 

This study investigates the effects of uncertainties in the prediction of creep-fatigue crack propagation in 316L(N) austenitic stainless steel plates containing a semi-elliptical surface defect. Different parameters in geometry, material behavior and test condition are considered as random variables in probabilistic assessments. Monte-Carlo sampling method is employed to estimate the probability distribution of desired outputs such as propagated crack sizes, stress intensity factors and creep rupture life. It is shown that, the standard deviation of the predicted crack sizes in both through-wall direction and along the surface of the plate will be increased by increasing the time (hence the...