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Probabilistic Model to Forecast Activities Completion Time in Ongoing Mass Housing Projects Case Study: The 10,000-Unit Mass Housing Project Executed by Kayson Company in Venezuela

Baqerin, Mohammad Hassan | 2013

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 44970 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Shafahi, Yusef; Mortaheb, Mohammad Mehdi
  7. Abstract:
  8. Reliable forecasting is a fundamental element of successful project management. Construction managers regularly control and monitor their project in order to ensure that their project performance is under control and within the acceptable control limits. Conventionally, the earned value method (EVM) is used to monitor project cost performance. However, its application to schedule performance using schedule performance index (SPI) has been widely questioned both by practitioners and researchers particularly due to poor accuracy early in the project. This study presents a novel activity-based framework, namely Weibull Evaluation and Forecasting Method (WEFM), for stochastic evaluation and probabilistic forecasting of the schedule performance of each and every activity in ongoing mass housing projects. The WEFM is based on EVM, the two-parameter Weibull distribution and the historical data. In this study, the applicability of Weibull distribution in describing construction project performance indices is examined. The major contribution of this study is to provide confidence bounds on predictions of activity duration at completion and enhance the evaluation and control of schedule performance. Moreover, it can be applied from the beginning of each activity by integrating originally available information such as historical data and estimate of activity duration at completion into new observations of actual schedule performance. The WEFM is implemented as an easy-to-use computer tool programmed in MATLAB and has been applied to a number of activities in a real mass housing project as a case study. The case study reveals that the WEFM provides more accurate and stable results than the EVM
  9. Keywords:
  10. Scheduling ; Forecasting ; Weibull Distribution ; Mass Housing ; Construction Management ; Earned Value ; Cost Analysis

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