Elicitation and Aggregation of Experts’ Knowledge for Event Outcome Prediction

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Ghazimatin, Azin |

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Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
Language: Farsi
Document No: 46018 (19)
University: Sharif University of Technology
Department: Computer Engineering
Advisor(s): Habibi, Jafar; Movaghar Rahim Abadi, Ali
Abstract:
Given an event O and a set of experts E, we describe a method for finding a subset of experts S whose aggregated opinions best predict the outcome of O. Therefor, the problem can be regarded as team formation for performing a prediction task. In order to estimate competency of each team we propose measure Sum Squared Error which uses experts’ records of predictions during past k days. For simplicity, opinion pooling is selected as the method of information aggregation. we prove in case of simple averaging of opinions,finding best team is NP-hard. we suggest some rounding and heuristic algorithms for finding near optimal solutions. Simulation results show that a variation of tabu search used for solving maximum clique, works effectively for team selection problem
Keywords:
Group Construction ; Data Fusion ; NP-Hard Problems ; Quadratic Programming ; Opinion Formation ; Opinion Pooling