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Transmission Expansion Planning by Information Gap Decision Theory from View Point of Private Investor

Ranjbar, Hossein | 2014

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 46571 (05)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Electrical Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Hosseini, Hamid
  7. Abstract:
  8. Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP) is one of the most important parts of the Ex-pansion Planning of power systems. TEP determines the type, location, and time of instal-lation of the new transmission facilities in order to supply the load. In recent years, restruc-turing of the power systems has been introduced in many countries. While competition has been started in the generation section, transmission has been remained monopoly yet. Since uncertainties in power systems affect the process of decision making and increase the risk of investment, private investors are reluctant to investment in the transmission ststem.
    There are different techniques for modeling of uncertainties in the restructured envi-ronment which are based on probabilistic methods, generally. Information gap decision theory (IGDT), however, is a non-probabilistic and non-fuzzy method for modeling of un-certainties. One of the most advantages of this method is that it does not need to Probabil-ity Density Function (PDF) or membership function of uncertain parameters which is re-quired in other methods. So, this method is one of the best choices for decision making in cases where the information of parameters is very poor. This method not only guaranties minimum desired profit which is needed by decision maker but also provides a robust deci-sion based on this profit, regardless of uncertainties. This method has two decision making strategies, risk taking, and risk averse. Since the investment cost of transmission lines are very expensive and the period of return of investment is too long, in this work the investors are considered as a risk-averse investors.
    Therefore, in this thesis, IGDT method is applied to TEP from viewpoint of private risk-averse investors under the effective uncertainty of the system demand. Although, there are some uncertaintaties such as system demand, generation expansion pattern, investment cost, etc in TEP problem, but we consider only the most important uncertainty in TEP (sys-tem demand) due to lack of IGDT method to modeling of several independent uncertain-ties. Because of private investor is risk-averse and expects a minimum desire profit, there would be some constraints for the problem. These constraints yield a robust plan against the risk due to the uncertainty of the system demand. So, the investment and its rate of return are guaranteed using the proposed approach.
    Finally, in order to verify the effectiveness of the obtained model, it has been applied to the Garver 6-bus test system and to the IEEE RTS 24-bus system and has been solved us-ing integer genetic algorithm method
  9. Keywords:
  10. Uncertainty ; Transmission Expansion Planning ; Information-gap Decision Theory ; Private Investor

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