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Development of a Systematic Risk-Based Asset Management for Transportation Infrastructure

Tabatabaeipoor, Javad | 2015

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 47030 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Haj Kazem Kashani, Hamed
  7. Abstract:
  8. Asset management involves making decisions related to selecting the most cost-effective asset improvement strategies. There is an increasing interest of risk-based approaches in the field of asset management. During the asset life various risk factors might influence the asset performance and the maintenance cost, therefore, it is important to incorporate these risk factors, which affect the necessity and timing of various activities. This study develops a systemic risk-based asset management methodology (framework) to manage the maintenance of infrastructure assets. This paper presents an overview of uncertainty problems in cost estimating of bridge in the future and also discusses suggestions on how to handle the uncertainty using analytical tools such as markov chain and probability theories. The decision-making algorithms in some existing bridge management systems and cost models are used to illustrate the suggested uncertainty handling methods and also show how the uncertainties can affect the overall decision. Historical records and a mathematical procedure named Geometric Brownian Motion have been used to generate probabilistic estimates. The Monte Carlo simulation was then used to generate the output probability distributions of the associated life-cycle costs of different alternatives and different types of repair decisions
  9. Keywords:
  10. Risk ; Markov Chain ; Monte Carlo Simulation ; Deterioration ; Asset Management

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