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A heuristic complexity-based method for cost estimation of aerospace systems

Banazadeh, A ; Sharif University of Technology | 2013

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1177/0954410012461987
  3. Publisher: 2013
  4. Abstract:
  5. Cost estimation plays an essential role in the development of aerospace systems that are perhaps the most complex, time- and labor-consuming ones. Regarding this matter, it is unavoidable to take a systematic approach to build a realistic model through a deliberative, heuristical and easy-to-do process in the early stages of design. In the current study, complexity index theory is utilized to develop a heuristic complexity-based method to estimate various costs of aerospace systems. This method promises to be logically and practically more reliable and accurate than classical parametric methods. Logically, manipulating a group of parameters, instead of only one or two, reduces the probability of misrepresentation of systems and in the case of incompleteness of input data, reserves the chance for guessing them. Practically, all operations in this method are linear which makes it possible to work with matrices. With its organized and discrete nature, simulated annealing as a heuristic tool is employed to offset undesirable effects of imprecise initial assumptions. This helps to adjust complexity coefficients to more realistic magnitudes, when deriving a specific model from the heuristic complexity-based method. These coefficients may be used to estimate the cost of a new system as well as for sensitivity analysis. As a test scenario, estimation of an acquisition cost of a newly-developed unmanned aerial vehicle is concerned. Sensitivity of the complexity index to a number of complexity inducer parameters is also examined in order to achieve the most affecting parameters. Comparing by previously published results, it is seen that the current model is a remarkably accurate estimator for the acquisition cost of aerospace systems. This model shows a better R2 value, as a statistical measure of regression quality, than an already existing successful model by Technomics Corporation, regarded as a pioneer in this field
  6. Keywords:
  7. Acquisition cost ; Aerospace systems ; Complexity index ; Cost estimation ; Simulated annealing ; Acquisition costs ; Current modeling ; Parametric method ; Statistical measures ; Undesirable effects ; Estimation ; Heuristic methods ; Mergers and acquisitions ; Cost benefit analysis
  8. Source: Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering ; Volume 227, Issue 11 , 2013 , Pages 1685-1700 ; 09544100 (ISSN)
  9. URL: http://pig.sagepub.com/content/227/11/1685