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Using Bayesian Approach in Life Management of a Monitored Structural System

Keshvarifard, Amir Hossein | 2016

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 48347 (45)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Aerospace Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Adibnazari, Saeed
  7. Abstract:
  8. In presence of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties of the structural systems, it is better to investigate the events in probabilistic manner. Bayesian inference is an approach that can update the current knowledge of probabilities with new evidence. The main objective of this study was evaluating the advanteges of using Bayesian approach in two main area of structural health monitoring, model calibration and decision making. In each of these two areas, one case study was conducted. First case study was prediction of crack growth life in a pre-cracked aluminum plate and the results showed that using Bayesian approach in calibration of crack growth model and measurement model of health monitoring system leads to more accurate prediction of remaining life. Also in this case, by comparing the predicted remaining life with a real remaining life for different combination of periodic nondestructive inspection and structural health monitoring system and Bayesian approach, the performance of each combination were evaluated and it was found that the combination of periodic nondestructive inspection and structural health monitoring system along with Bayesian updating leads to more accurate prediction of the remaining life. The second case study examined the use of Bayesian approach in decision making and determined the failure mode in a cracked aluminum plate that repaired by composite patch. The purpose of this case study was classification of each damage propagation step in two classes of crack growth under the patch and deboning of the composite patch. This classification was conducted with Bayesian approach and without it. Comparing the results of this analysis showed the obvious impact of using Bayesian approach in reducing the error of decision making
  9. Keywords:
  10. Bayesian Inference ; Fatigue ; Structural Health Monitoring ; Probabilistic Assessment ; Life Management

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