Study of the Baby Boom in Iran

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Malvandy, Mina | 2017

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Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
Language: Farsi
Document No: 50112 (44)
University: Sharif University of Technology
Department: Management and Economics
Advisor(s): Rahmati, Mohammad Hossein; Vesal, Mohammad
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of the revolution on a rise in the rate of marriage and baby boom in the late 1980’s. The key factors that incentivize doing research in this area are manifold—three of which, however, are of great importance: first, the answer to this research question is still a matter of debate; Second, the number of studies in the case of Iran is insufficient; Third, the well-known theoretical models developed in non-Iranian cases are not compatible with the case of Iran. Our research hypothesis is based on the fact that during a period before and after the revolution, people were tremendously involved in the unstable political situation and, therefore no matter what generation, unmarried Iranians preferred to “buy” more free time by delaying marriage and having children until a more appropriate time which happened just several years after the revolution. To test this hypothesis, we set up household's optimization problem in the form of the Bellman equation and solve it using dynamic programming. Our results show that the revolution, as an external (exogenous) shock, led to a marriage boom after the revolution, and as a result, the baby boom in the late 1980’s
Keywords:
Fertility Rate ; Dynamic Programming ; Demography ; Baby Boom

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