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Applicability of ARIMA models for investigating the effects of Technology spillover on Car Manufacturing Companies' performance

Khorshidnam, M ; Sharif University of Technology | 2018

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. Publisher: IEOM Society , 2018
  3. Abstract:
  4. The present study seeks to investigate the effects of technology spillover on the performance of automobile companies. In short, technology spillover is an opportunity to transfer and exploit and obtain information, technology or technical know-how, without prior planning. One of the most important indicators in evaluation of cars' manufacturing companies' performance is sales; hence, this study focused on sales variable and took it as a representative of Technology spillover. To this aim, the sales data were collected fromthe domestic car manufacturing companies. For this mean, sales' pattern during ten years is recognized using Seasonal ARIMA (S-ARIMA) model. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC) were used to select the most appropriate model. It is found that the selected model can be applied to forecast the sales with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in the range of 6%. This research also confirmed the idea, if Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is taking place in developing countries, with regards to the necessary conditions and infrastructures, technology spillover occurs, and meaningful changes in factory performance would happen. Also, the proposed forecasting model can help senior managers of domestic companies in mid-term and long-term planning. © IEOM Society International
  5. Keywords:
  6. ARIMA models ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Host Company ; Technology spillover
  7. Source: 8th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, IEOM 2018, 6 March 2018 through 8 March 2018 ; Volume 2018-March , 2018 ; 21698767 (ISSN); 9781532359446 (ISBN)
  8. URL: http://ieomsociety.org/ieom2018/papers/305.pdf