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Improved Drought Management by Setting up Restriction on Consumption: Multimodal Stream Flow Forecasting

Mousavi, Rouhollah | 2018

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 51926 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Abrishamchi, Ahmad
  7. Abstract:
  8. The Droughts in various parts of the world cause a lot of economic and social damage every year. In fact, droughts are due to climate fluctuations that are inherent in the natural processes of meteorological and hydrological processes and reduce water resources; population growth; Of course population growth, exacerbates its consequences. Research as well as observations have shown that climate change also exacerbates extreme phenomena such as drought and flood. The population of Kabul city, the capital of Afghanistan, is increasing due to migration from other cities, and on the other hand, the flow of the river in the summer is minimized, which for some years leads to drought. In these years, the amount of droughts damage can be reduced by forecasting streamflow in the summer and setting up restrictions in this season. In this research, streamflow forecasting was performed using multimodel ensemble forecasting and then simulated by Shatot Dam reservoir model, the amount of water supply shortage is determined at the end of the season. The results show that the use of sea surface temperature is reliable as a predictor variable, and the accuracy of the multimodel method in forecasting is and reliable, so that in most of the previous years, water storage was less than normal value (1994, 1996, 2008, 2009) With a 30% limit on consumption, water storage at the end of the season is in normal condition. But in some years, such as 2002 and 2005, even with a 50% limit in spending, the amount of reserve at the end of the season is lower than normal, resulting in the need for another source to meet the needs of these years
  9. Keywords:
  10. Stream Flow Forecasting ; Nonlinear Regression ; Resampling ; Drought ; Sea Surface Temperature ; Shatoot Dam ; Ensemble Forecasting ; Kabul City

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