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Determination and Quantification of Social, Economic, and Climatic Factors in the Uncertainty of Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP)

Jahesh, Farhad | 2022

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 55016 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Tajrishi, Massoud
  7. Abstract:
  8. Lake Urmia in northwest Iran is an important water body at the national and international level and plays a significant role in the natural, social, and economic aspects of life in the region. Unfortunately, as a result of natural and anthropologic factors, the lake has suffered a severe water decline in recent decades and was even on the verge of complete drying. Being aware of the catastrophic consequences of lake Urmia's desiccation, a megaproject called Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP) aiming to revive the lake was launched in 2013. Failure in megaprojects is common and frequent in which a high level of uncertainty is one of the main contributing factors. The purpose of this study is to develop a logic-based model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) method to formulate and quantify the uncertainties of the ULRP megaproject in the final phase of the program from 2021 to 2027. Therefore, by linking event tree and fault tree a model was developed to assess and analyze the possible events and scenarios in ULRP. Then, some basic events were identified and after eliminating some of them on account of assumptions 78 basic events entered in the model. Findings of the study indicate that the PRA method, thanks to properties such as simplicity and flexibility provides a proper tool for formulation and quantification of uncertainty in dynamic and complex systems such as water resources systems and the problem of uncertainties in ULRP. The results obtained from the analysis of the ULRP risk model indicate that overall, unpleasant scenarios have a higher probability and are more likely to happen. In addition, those groups and events with the highest share in overall risk in the ULRP have also been identified. The results imply that in this project only a limited number of factors make up the majority of the risk share and if any resources are to be devoted these high-risk factors should get the highest priority.
  9. Keywords:
  10. Risk ; Uncertainty ; Scenario Analysis ; Probability Analysis ; Urumieh Lake ; Bioregeneration ; Water Resources Management

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