Development of Model for Evaluation of Energy Technologies and R&D Planning

Shafiei, Ehsanoddin | 2009

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  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 39054 (08)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Mechanical Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Ghofrani, Mohammad Bagher; Saboohi, Yadollah
  7. Abstract:
  8. In this research work an analytical instrument has been developed for assessment of energy technologies, R&D resource allocation and technology development. Development of new technologies has been considered according to the specific conditions of developing countries. The analytical instrument includes two models interlinked with each other: energy technology assessment and optimal control of innovation activities. Energy technology assessment and prioritization of new energy technologies are provided by the model of the energy supply system that contains a detailed representation of current and emerging technologies characterized in terms of their technical indices. The results of this model reveal the extent of potential market for energy technologies and reflect the impact of development of new technologies on the long term development of the energy supply system. Optimal control model for innovation activities reflects the optimal profile of R&D for developing the appropriate energy technologies in developing countries. In this model, based on the economic and environmental impacts of new technologies, the optimal allocation of R&D resources for them is studied. This model is based on the theory of optimal control. The main control variables are the flow of knowledge and experience for each technology. The main state variables are the level of knowledge and experience stock by technology type. This model maximizes the total net present value of resulting R&D benefits taking into account the dynamics of technological progress, knowledge and experience spillovers, technology adoption and R&D constraints. The development of mathematical model for planning R&D and the process of linking this model with energy-systems models provides a set of analytical tools for comprehensive analysis of the impact of technological innovation and R&D planning. To evaluate the impact of innovation programs on development of energy system, the set of models described above, are applied to the electricity supply system in Iran. Three emerging electricity generation technologies of Solar PV, Wind Turbine and Gas Fuel Cell are considered in the model and the impact of innovation programs on cost reducing innovation for them is examined during the planning horizon of 2010-2050. Furthermore the resource requirement for development of these technologies and also their impact on Iranian electricity supply system is studied
  9. Keywords:
  10. Energy System ; Technology Evaluation ; Research and Development Strategy ; Technology Development ; Optimal Control ; Developing Countries ; Technological Spillover

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