Measuring Economic Uncertainty in Iran

Ghodsizadeh, Mohammad Mehdi | 2018

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 51981 (44)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Management and Economics
  6. Advisor(s): Nili, Masoud; Joshaghani, Hossein
  7. Abstract:
  8. Uncertainty is one of the factors influencing the decision making of economic actors which has a long history in the literature of economics. Given that uncertainty is a mental concept, measuring it has always been a problem. In economic research, the instability caused by uncertainty is often used as an indicator of uncertainty. In this thesis, three indices for economic uncertainty in Iran are introduced: an indicator for macro-level uncertainty using fluctuations in macroeconomic variables, an indicator for micro-level uncertainty using micro-level variables and another indicator called the index of economic policy uncertainty index, Which was made by reviewing the newspapers and opinions published therein. For the construction of the economic policy uncertainty index, nearly 4 million articles were reviewed in the period from 1381 to 1397. The results of this dissertation show that in Iran uncertainty is the transitory micro level while the macro level uncertainty is at least 12 months. The comparison of the economic policy index which, with regard to the use of newspaper articles, is closest to the mental concept of uncertainty, shows that the macroeconomic uncertainty index The two indicators are highly correlated at a time when the restrictions on newspapers are not applied. Given the high frequency of this indicator and the possibility of measuring it on a daily basis, it can be used to answer many of the economic questions that were not previously possible
  9. Keywords:
  10. Uncertainty ; Macroeconomic Variables ; Economic Policy Making ; Uncertainty Index

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