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Modeling the Kidney Market in Iran

Naderi Tabar, Mohammad | 2021

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 54930 (44)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Management and Economics
  6. Advisor(s): Fatemi Ardestani, Farshad
  7. Abstract:
  8. The purpose of this study is to model people's behavior on both sides of the kidney market. The healthy person decides to donate a live kidney (for a certain amount) on the supply side. On the demand side, the patient chooses between the two existing kidney queues, the living kidney and the cadaveric kidney, based on the individual's income and belief from the waiting time in each of the two queues. The sick person faces two critical risks in life: risk of death and kidney failure. To model these two risks, it is assumed that each person has a level of health that consists of two deterministic and stochastic parts. In this way, with a deterministic rate, a person's health level will decrease over time. The stochastic section is also intended to model the sudden death of individuals over a lifetime. After modeling people's behavior on both sides of the market and calibrating the model parameters with the available data, the kidney market is simulated, and a steady-state is introduced. Steady-state introduces the optimal price (minimizing the waiting time in the kidney queues) and the equilibrium price. It can be seen that the optimal and equilibrium prices are close to each other and are equal to the annual income of the third decile of income in Iran. The hypothesis of a legal market is then discarded. The situation of the kidney market in the United States is modeled and compared with the results of the existence of a legal market. By examining the counterfactual, it is observed that if there is a sixty percent chance of any altruistic donation for each person, the two scenarios of existence and non-existence of a legal kidney market are equivalent
  9. Keywords:
  10. Waiting Time ; Kidney Diseases ; Queueing System ; Well-Being ; Chronic Kidney Disease ; Action Modeling

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