Sharif Digital Repository

Water quality is one of the most important factors contributing to a healthy life. From the water quality management point of view, TDS (total dissolved solids) is the most important factor and many water developing plans have been implemented in recognition of this factor. However, these plans have not been perfect and very successful in overcoming the poor water quality problem, so there are a good volume of related studies in the literature. We study TDS and the water flow of the Karoun river in southwest Iran. We collected the necessary time series data from the Harmaleh station located in the river. We present two Univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Movement Average (ARIMA)... 

Despite complex fluctuations, missing data, and maintenance costs of detectors, traffic volume forecasting at intersections is still a challenge. Moreover, most existing forecasting methods consider an isolated intersection instead of multiple adjacent ones. By accurately forecasting the volume of short-term traffic, a low-cost method can be provided to solve the problems of congestion, delay, and breakdown of detectors in the road transport system. This paper outlines a novel hybrid method based on deep learning to estimate short-term traffic volume at three adjacent intersections. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) and long short-term memory (LSTM) bilayer network with wavelet transform (WL)... 

In this article, a high-accuracy hybrid approach for short-term wind power forecasting is proposed using historical data of wind farm and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data. The power forecasting is carried out in three stages: wind direction forecasting, wind speed forecasting, and wind power forecasting. In all three phases, the same hybrid method is used, and the only difference is in the input data set. The main steps of the proposed method are constituted of outlier detection, decomposition of time series using wavelet transform, effective feature selection and prediction of each time series decomposed using Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. The combination of automatic... 

Accurate forecasts of tourist arrivals and study of the tourist arrival patterns are essential for the tourism-related industries to formulate efficient and effective strategies on maintaining and boosting tourism industry in a country. Forecasting accuracy is one of the most important factors involved in selecting a forecasting method. This study presents a hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) model to develop a Mamdani-type fuzzy rule-based system to forecast tourist arrivals with high accuracy. The hybrid model uses genetic algorithm for learning rule base and tuning data base of fuzzy system. Actually it extracts useful information patterns with a descriptive rule induction approach based... 

The trend of gold price in the market is the most important consideration for the investors of the gold, and serves as the basis of gaining profit, so there are scholars who try to forecast the gold price. Forecasting accuracy is one of the most important factors involved in selecting a forecasting method. Besides, nowadays artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are becoming more and more widespread because of their accuracy, symbolic reasoning, flexibility and explanation capabilities. Among these techniques, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is one of the best AI techniques for optimization and parameter estimation. In this study a PSO-based time series model for the gold price... 

The past few years have witnessed a growing rate of attraction in adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques and combining them to improve forecasting accuracy in different fields. Besides, stock market forecasting has always been a subject of interest for most investors and professional analysts. Stock market forecasting is a tough problem because of the uncertainties involved in the movement of the market. This paper proposes a hybrid artificial intelligence model for stock exchange index forecasting, the model is a combination of genetic algorithms and feedforward neural networks. Actually it evolves neural network weights by using genetic algorithms. We also employ preprocessing... 

Machine learning (ML) is generating new opportunities for innovative research in energy economics and finance. We critically review the burgeoning literature dedicated to Energy Economics/Finance applications of ML. Our review identifies applications in areas such as predicting energy prices (e.g. crude oil, natural gas, and power), demand forecasting, risk management, trading strategies, data processing, and analyzing macro/energy trends. We critically review the content (methods and findings) of more than 130 articles published between 2005 and 2018. Our analysis suggests that Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are among the most... 

Efficient operation of urban water systems necessitates accurate water demand forecasting. We present daily, weekly, and monthly water demand forecasting using dynamic artificial neural network (DAN2), focused time-delay neural network (FTDNN), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) models for the city of Tehran. The daily model investigates whether partitioning weekdays into weekends and non-weekends can improve forecast results; it did not. The weekly model yielded good results by using the summation of the daily forecast values into their corresponding weeks. The monthly results showed that partitioning the year into high and low seasons can improve forecast accuracy. All three models offer very... 

This paper applies a novel adaptive approach consisting of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLR) to improve car ownership forecasting in complex, ambiguous, and uncertain environments. This integrated approach is applied to forecast car ownership in Iran from 1930 to 2007. In this study, the level of car ownership is viewed as the result of demographic, politico-social, and urban structure factors including average family size, total population density, urban population density, urbanization rate, gross national product per capita, gasoline price, and total road length. To capture the potential complexity, uncertainty, and linearity relation between the car... 

Thermal recovery by steam injection has proven to be an effective means of recovering heavy oil. Forecasts of reservoir response to the application of steam are necessary before starting a steam drive project. Thermal numerical models are available to provide forecasts. However, these models are expensive and consume a great deal of computer time. An alternative to numerical modeling is to use a semi-analytical model. The objective of the current study was to investigate thermal applications of horizontal wells for displacement and gravity drainage processes using analytical modeling as well as reservoir simulation. The main novelties presented in the paper are: a) the transient temperature... 

The accuracy of five soft computing techniques was assessed for the prediction of monthly streamflow of the Gilgit river basin by a cross-validation method. The five techniques assessed were the feed-forward neural network (FFNN), the radial basis neural network (RBNN), the generalised regression neural network (GRNN), the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system with grid partition (Anfis-GP) and the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system with subtractive clustering (Anfis-SC). The interaction between temperature and streamflow was considered in the study. Two statistical indexes, mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination (R2), were used to evaluate the performances of the...