Sharif Digital Repository

In this research, we develop a Real Business Cycle model for Iran, as Small Open Economy. In this model, which is designed to measure the role of oil price shocks in Iran’s business cycles, the positive oil price shocks, as well as increasing the revenue of exporting oil, raises the price of oil-based tradable goods. Additionally, it causes the fiscal policy variables (taxes and government expenditures) to change. Also the productivity of this economy is fluctuated by oil price fluctuations. The model is estimated via Impulse Response Function Matching method using a SVAR model as the auxiliary model. The results from the theoretical model show that near 50 percent of non-oil GDP cycles and... 

The Contagion of markets to each other, due to their role in the occurrence of financial crises and the transmission of shocks, is an important topic in the financial literature. In this dissertation, we study this issue by examining the number of positive and negative co-exeedances in the oil market and Tehran Stock Exchange. The data examined are the daily time series of Tehran Stock Market Index and Oil Prices (WTI) in the period of 2009 to 2019.First of all we find the time cut-off rate of the daily returns of the stock indexes of different industries and of oil prices, using the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Then we count the number of days when the returns have negative or... 

Using a panel dataset of oil discoveries and oil prices, this thesis studies the effect of oil wealth on protection of property rights in 56 oil countries between 1995 to 2018. Controlling for year fixed effects and country fixed effects, We show that this association is affected by the ownership of oil in this countries. In countries that government is owned all the oil industry, a strong correlation is observable between oil wealth and property rights policies. But in countries that private ownership on oil is legal and the government is not monopolist in the oil ownership, this correlation is insignificant. This results are robust with controlling the GDP per capita, political regime... 

This study investigates the effect of commodity price shock, including oil and base metals prices, on Tehran exchange and industries stock returns. These industries have the largest market share in Tehran exchange and may heavily depend on global prices. Using weekly data from 1387 to 1396, Multifactor and VAR models are performed to analyze the variance decomposition and impulse response function of each industry to 1% price shock. In addition to global prices, some macroeconomic factors that are likely to affect stock returns are considered. The results show that commodities price shocks have dynamic and significant effects on stock returns  

The abstract is the most important section of the thesis because many readers limit most of their reading to abstracts, saving in-depth reading for specific theses. It should give the reader a "preview" of what's to come. The abstract should emphasize new and important aspects of the study or observations. The purpose of the abstract is to allow researchers to decide whether or not to read the whole thesis. The abstract is what researchers read first to decide if the thesis is important, interesting, and it allows them to assess the relevance of a thesis to their own research, without having to read the entire thesis. Thus, it is crucial that the abstract both summarize succinctly the key... 

This paper studies and compares the effect of "Dutch disease" in Iranian economy in two periods of rising oil price (1973-1978) and (2004-2010). The study presents a DSGE model to analysis the behavior of economic variable in both periods and to address this question that whether or not policy maker has learning behavior. The model consists of households, final goods producers who divided in tradable goods and non-tradable goods sector and the government. I use calibration methods to estimate models parameters.Comparison of simulated results and the actual macroeconomic variables in Iran during 1338-1390 indicates that, first of all Dutch disease effect occur in both periods of oil shock so... 

In this study, the effect of oil price shocks on stock markets is examined for Iran and Norway as two oil-exporting countries. To do this, an unrestricted Vector Auto-regression model is applied based on monthly data from April 2001 to March 2011. The variables used in the model are Brent oil price shocks, interest rate, consumer price index and stock returns. To find the relationship between oil price shocks and stock markets and determine the effects of oil shocks on stock markets, impulse-response analysis and variance decomposition are employed. To compare the effects of positive and negative oil price shocks, a Chi-square test is used. The proposed model is applied on different types of... 

In this thesis, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model under new-Keynesian assumptions has been proposed for the economy of Iran, as a major oil-exporting economy. The economy is supposed to be inhabited by households, firms (both final-good and intermediate-good producing firms), a government and a monetary authority. It is exposed to stochastic and exogenous shocks to total factor productivity, oil export revenues and the growth rate of money. The most important features of the model, which distinguish it from most other proposed models for the economy of Iran, are the assumptions of the presence of monopolistic competition in intermediate-good producing firms and also a degree of...