Sharif Digital Repository

Chaotic time series analysis, study of statistical behavior of chaotic maps and eventually an attempt to reconstruction and prediction of dynamical and statistical properties of output data of chaotic systems using stochastic models such as Markov models and autoregressive-moving average models are the main purposes of the present research. Examples of chaotic time series abound in the output of economics, engineering systems, the natural sciences (especially geophysics and meteorology) and social sciences. An intrinsic feature of an output time series of a dynamic system is that, adjacent observations are dependent. Time series analysis is concerned with techniques for the analysis of this... 

Lately, there has been a great attention to accident prediction methods in traffic management. The importance of predicting an accident is because of its enormous effect on reducing casualties, injuries, property damages and delays. The main objectivein this study was to identify the relationship between accidents frequency rates and geometric design variables, climatic parameters and traffic characteristics using probabilistic models. The other objective was to evaluate the crash severity and crash type. Therefore, the 1997 traffic accident statistics of city of Mashhad in Iran was used for the for the modeling of different highway classification. Probabilistic models are used for... 

The railroad blocking problem emerges as an important issue at the tactical level of planning in freight rail transportation. This problem consists of determining the paths of each shipment which minimize the total cost subject to the key constraints such as limitation on travel time, limitation on number of dispatched trains, and limitation on the number of cars classified at each station. The multi-path railroad blocking model is developed and then a new heuristic algorithm based on the Lagrangian relaxation technique to solve the realistic rail network is introduced.To consider the uncertainty which is inherent in the demand and travel time (as a supply indicator of rail system), a... 

In two past decades, a revolution has occurred by emerging of substation automation system in field of substation control and protection system. The traditional control system has changed to the modern automation systems which are based on computer networks. The development of this project become possible by having experience in and being familiar with automation systems, studying equipment specifications, tasks, and criteria and analyzing operation of various systems. The main target of this thesis is evaluating the automation system precisely and exhaustively and developing a model based on mathematical relations. This model is founded based on the application and analysis of the networks.... 

Television, radio, newspaper, magazines, and billboards are among the major channels that traditionally place ads, however, the advancement of the Internet enables users to seek information online. In display and mobile advertising, the most significant technical development in recent years is the growth of Real-Time Bidding (RTB), which facilitates a real-time auction for a display opportunity. Real-time means the auction is per impression and the process usually occurs less than 300 milliseconds before the ad is placed. RTB has fundamentally changed the landscape of the digital media market by scaling the buying process across a large number of available inventories among publishers in an... 

This thesis presents a new method for scheduling wind generation companies to participate in day-ahead market. The assumed market structure of this thesis, considers day-ahead energy market and balancing market, simultaneously. The stochastic model of this, implements a robust function to face the uncertainties of these markets. The risk of participation in these market are controlled with Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). Finally the allowable percent of each uncertain parameters are introduced to met an specific level of profit for the company  

As a problem, generally, energy security components do not interfere with the calculation of the optimal energy supply situation. In this paper, we are looking to find a solution to make a framework of the impact of energy security on energy supply in order to obtain comprehensive analysis of the economic optimal point. Method is based on the competition of energy costs to meet demand during the study period. Threats that have been addressed in the energy security are seen as risky and stochastic parameters in the model. The nature of these parameters is of uncertainty type, therefore, based on the probable scenarios of the stochastic model, the perspective of the energy supply system is... 

Smart consumers have a major role in the development of the smart grid. On the other hand, increasing need for more flexibility in DGs highlights the consumer’s role. This is possible with the development of smart appliance and appropriate communications infrastructure to active consumers. Today, with the development of smart grids, it is possible to control different parts of home energy systems and manage energy consumption. In this project a comprehensive model has been developed to optimize energy consumption in smart home. In the next phase of the thesis, due to the random nature of solar energy and electric vehicles, stochastic model of smart home energy system is discussed. At this... 

Traffic volume is the most important characteristic in most traffic studies, which is regularly measured by sampling methods for a given road. Traffic volume has determining effect in specifying network origin-destination demand, improvement of roads, traffic distributions over the network, improving road parameters, air pollution and in other aspects of flow in the network. There are many ways to measure traffic volume in different situations. However, most of them are expensive to implement and in cases which take a long time to do the survey, or the number of locations are excessive, the operation would not be cost-effective. In this research we investigate using macroscopic... 

People use social networks to share millions of stories every day, but these stories rarely become viral. Can we estimate the probability that a story becomes a u/rof cascade? If so, can we find a set of users that are more likely to trigger viral cascades? There are many factors influenced the message virality. In this thesis, we investigate the effect of graph structure, diffusion pattern as well as the message text on virality measure. Finally, the authors solve both source localization and inferring COVID-19 network via propsed methods.First, the authors investigate probability estimation and maximization of cascade virality. In this section, we develop an efficient viral cascade...