Sharif Digital Repository

In this study the predictive power of “Simple Moving Average” simulation for three month horizon is investigated. The purpose of the study is expressed in two hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that there is a significant difference in the prediction of stock price volatility by “Simple Moving Average” simulation with the “Weighted Moving Average” model prediction and the second hypothesis states that using “Weighted Moving Average” model we can forecast volatility stock price for the out-of-sample period. The research data includes a series of total stock price indices from 2013 to 2018 extracted from Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). For “Weighted Moving Average” model, three normal... 

We study intraday patterns of trading volume, size, return, and volatility using the Tehran Stock Exchange high frequency data from 2008 to 2015. Intraday test results indicate that trade size and volume follow a J-shape behavior, whereas return and return volatility exhibit an L-shape pattern. To examine the behavior of informed traders as predicted by Barclay and Warner’s (1993), we examine midsize volume and find that it has a higher price impact compared to other trade sizes, which is consistent with the predictions of Barclay and Warner’s (1993) stealth-trading hypothesis. However, our findings do not support the intraday stealth trading pattern, as insiders prefer to trade in low and... 

The history of the researches conducted in the American, European and Iranian markets shows the importance of liquidity risk in the transactions of various types of financial assets. And as one of the important elements of risk in the pricing of financial assets, liquidity risk is considered for risk premium. Different criteria have been used to measure this type of risk in different researches, and their difference is in the ease of calculation and explanation. Liquidity risk can be divided into three categories: first, the commonality of liquidity risk of the portfolio or stock with market liquidity, second, the impact of portfolio or stock returns on the level of market liquidity, third,... 

The present study has been conducted with the purpose of investigating how to reduce behavioral biases in investors' decisions, which has become very important in the recent situation of Tehran Stock Exchange and with the entry of a large number of inexperienced investors. In this research, an attempt is made to examine the relationship between investors' trading experience and the effect of herd mentality on their investment decisions through the perspective of social cognitive theory and using financial self-efficacy. Multiple regression analysis and Bootstrap mediator relationship analysis were performed on data collected from 502 active investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange, and the... 

Informational inequality between institutional and individual traders is one of the centric issues in financial markets. The preference of each of these groups to attain personal information may provide other traders important information. New traders could make a profit by addressing the preferable group and following its transactions. This study aims to determine the winner group at attaining more personal information, by breaking down the probability of informed trading (PIN), one of the most famous measures in informational risk to two main components: the probability of informed trading of individuals (DPIN) and the probability of informed trading of institutions (SPIN). Moreover, the... 

In inefficient stock markets, fast and complete access to the public information about stocks and using this information for trades can make the investment more profitable. This research gathered the Iranian telegram channel's data with stock and investment subjects, trading volume, and stock returns. We suggested a trading strategy for beating the market by processing these data. We have also investigated the transaction costs in this research.
 

This thesis analyses the relationship between performance and capital structure of listed companies in the Tehran stock exchange. For examining this relationship, we use trade-off theory. This theory states that using debt comes with some benefits and costs for the company. If this theory holds true, we expect that in a low debt capital structure, as a result of benefits of using debt surpasses the costs of it, the relationship between debt and performance should be positive and in a high debt capital structure, as a result of costs of using debt surpasses the benefits of it, using more debt should have negative relationship with performance. For examining this relationship, we first gather... 

The book-to-market ratio is known as an anomaly variable in the financial literature. This variable has a high explanatory power in predicting the returns of companies in different capital markets across world; But understanding why it has the power to explain is still a matter of debate. In this study, we seek a better understanding of the explanatory power of the ratio of book-to-market ratio in explaining the annual return of cross-sectional data of stocks on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Book value can be divided into two parts: retained earnings and contributed capital, which have different economic meanings for readers of financial statements. Our hypothesis is that the predictive power... 

The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between the stock price volatility and dividend policy (dividend yield and dividend payout ratio) for the Iranian stock market. According to the studies of Baskin (1989) and Allen and Rachim (1996), the fixed effect and random effect regression models are applied in this research. The sample of data is composed of 200 public firms which are listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and paid dividends continuously from 2010 to 2020. The results indicate that the dividend policy has a significantly negative relationship with the stock price volatility. In addition, the Size of the company is negatively related to the stock price... 

Price to earnings ratio is one of the most used ratios in financial markets for valuation of firms in the Iran and world. In present research for analysis of this ratio,investors’ sentiment alongside fundamental factors affecting price to earnings ratio has been investigated. Fundamental factors affecting this ratio are selected based on prior research and economics theory; these factors are, dividend ratio, growth,risk and inflation. For the analysis of investors’ sentiment, eight proxies related to sentimental behavior have been utilized; among them, four are introduced and used for the first time in this research. Implementing these eight sentimental proxies, a variable measuring... 

Price manipulation can lead to lack of transparency and impair proper functioning of financial markets. On the Tehran Stock Exchange, there is ample anecdotal evidence that some blockholders try to manipulate the price before the block transactions to change the share price significantly. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence that in intergroup block trades, blockholders tend to buy shares before the trade date or engage in round-trip transactions to increase the block shares price. No such evidence is found in intragroup transactions and other explanations such as market reaction to a change in corporate ownership seem more plausible than price manipulation. In addition to the... 

We investigate order book events impacts on price movement, using the 31 stocks from the Tehran Stock Exchange. We show that in a low-depth market the mid-price change is explained mainly by a linear relationship with our proposed explanatory variable, modified order flow imbalance that represents the depth-adjusted differences of first level orders volumes in different sides of order book. Our results shows that the bid and ask spread has a negative effect on the power of events to move the price  

The issue of spending companies' resources on marketing measures, due to the lack of a proper mechanism to explain the impact and role of these measures has always been one of the most challenging problems for many stakeholders of companies, especially managers. In this study, we have tried to explain the relationship between marketing costs and credit policies with the financial performance of companies by examining the information published by companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this study, the required information was collected from the sources of valid tools and then, using statistical methods, regression models that express the relationship between variables were... 

In finance literature there are different views of individual and institutional investors for variety of reasons. Despite having consensus on the difference of individual and institutional investors due to complexity and size, it seems there are much disagreement on how they affect the key process of market like return and liquidity. In this paper we consider the effect of individual and institutional trading on the short-term return of stocks. Specifically, first we define some factors to measure the trading activity of individual and institutional investors. Then we use these factors to sort each stock in the cross section to create decile portfolios and we compare the short-term return... 

Using the data of the Tehran Stock Exchange, we analyze the characteristics and explanatory factors of major intra-group and out-of-group transactions and test the tunneling hypothesis in intra-group transactions. We find that out-of-group transactions can be largely explained by changes in control or management, firm size, and the type of the firm. However, intra-group transaction properties mostly depend on the difference between the parent company's cash flow rights in the buyer and seller companies. Also, in the final analysis, we conclude that many intra-group transactions are made to change the structure of the business groups, especially when investment companies buy shares of listed... 

Exchange-rate has always been one of the critical macroeconomic factors influencing Iran’s economy. As a representative of the whole economy, the stock market is also affected by exchange rate fluctuations. However, the direction and the delay of this impact is not similar for all firms. This study aims to find the time and direction of the reactions to dollar fluctuations in the two most recent jumps, during 1390 and 1397, for all firms listed on Tehran Securities Exchange. It also seeks to determine why among stocks with a positive reaction, some react sooner, and some react later, based on their specific characteristics. Using a distributed lag model, we found that about one-half of the... 

There are different kinds of ownership structures. In every economy special kinds of these structures are common. These structures include Pyramidal ownership, cross-ownership, etc. These structures empower shareholders to make a gap between their cash flow right and ownership right in a special firm so they could control more firms with the same capital. These structures have their pros and cons, like the internal capital market and tunneling. Of important factors affecting these structures are Legal protection of minor shareholders, shareholder concentration, and largest shareholder. In this research, we find that, unlike most countries, there is a negative relationship between a firm's... 

Asset pricing models are one of the most important tools in investment management and portfolio allocation. Multi-factor asset pricing models try to explain the relationship between risk and expected return through a limited number of macroeconomic, fundamental or statistical factors. Usually, these models are suggested based on the US market and its intrinsic qualities. Although, there are some similarities between the Iranian and the US market, these economies are structurally different and therefore, proposing a proper multi-factor model based on the Iranian market’s fundamental characteristics will greatly improve the understanding of risk-return relationship in this market. In this... 

Asset pricing models are one of the most important tools in investment management and portfolio allocation. Multi-factor asset pricing models try to explain the relationship between risk and expected return through a limited number of macroeconomic, fundamental or statistical factors. Usually, these models are suggested based on the US market and its intrinsic qualities. Although, there are some similarities between the Iranian and the US market, these economies are structurally different and therefore, proposing a proper multi-factor model based on the Iranian market’s fundamental characteristics will greatly improve the understanding of risk-return relationship in this market. In this... 

The Contagion of markets to each other, due to their role in the occurrence of financial crises and the transmission of shocks, is an important topic in the financial literature. In this dissertation, we study this issue by examining the number of positive and negative co-exeedances in the oil market and Tehran Stock Exchange. The data examined are the daily time series of Tehran Stock Market Index and Oil Prices (WTI) in the period of 2009 to 2019.First of all we find the time cut-off rate of the daily returns of the stock indexes of different industries and of oil prices, using the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Then we count the number of days when the returns have negative or...