Sharif Digital Repository

Trade wars and economic sanctions have become increasingly common tools of economic policy, prompting targeted countries to seek alternative trade routes. For instance, in response to tariffs, China has redirected exports to the United States through intermediary countries. This issue is also relevant in Russia’s confrontation with Western sanctions. In this study, we leverage Iran’s long-term experience with sanctions to examine whether trade re-routing occurs, how quickly it emerges, and whether it persists over time. Analyzing trade data from 2002 to 2023, we find that by the end of this period, 70% of Iran’s imports originated from the UAE, China, and Türkiye, whereas two decades...