Loading...

Long Term Seasonal Rainfall and Streamflow Prediction using Regionalization of Ocean- Atmospheric Climatic Variables

Azimi Bozchelouei, Mahmoud | 2010

784 Viewed
  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 41029 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Agha Mohammad Hossein Tajrishi, Massoud
  7. Abstract:
  8. Due to water resources restriction and increase in water demand, optimum use of existing available resources is more essential. This needs accurate prediction of streamflow with lag time from one to several months. In recent decades identification of long term climate variables as predictors of hydrological process has made considerable evolution in climatic predictions and several studies have been made in this field. In this research streamflow volume of Dez Dam in dry season (April to August) has been predicted by using multiple regression models and considering seasonal rainfall data, climate indices and ocean-atmospheric variables including surface temperature of adjacent seas and 500mbar geopotential height. Also relationship between seasonal rainfall and climate indices and territorial rainfall heat sources has been considered and seasonal rainfall has been predicted. Finally the models have been verified by some statistical indices. The results indicate significant correlation between rain in fall and SOI index and also rain in winter and SST in eastern basin of Mediterranean sea. Also SST and Geopotential height in western coast of North Atlantic Ocean in summer (with 6 months lag) and eastern basin of Mediterranean sea in winter have significant correlation with dry season streamflow of Dez watershed. In seasonal rainfall prediction with the aid of using identified variables the developed regression based models can explain 36, 58 and 30 percent of rainfall respectively in fall, winter and spring. Also in streamflow prediction models the models presented the ability to explain 26, 37 and 63 percent of April to August streamflow variation respectively in 6, 3 and zero months lag times
  9. Keywords:
  10. River Flow ; Long-Lead Streamflow Forecasting ; Regression Analysis ; Ocean-Atmospheric Variables ; Dez Basin ; Seasonal Rainfall Prediction

 Digital Object List

 Bookmark

No TOC