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Critical Realism and Futures Studies: the Influence of Roy Bhaskar on Sohail Inayatullah

Bahari, Mojtaba | 2011

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 41928 (42)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Philosophy of Science
  6. Advisor(s): Mousavi, Mirsaeid
  7. Abstract:
  8. Sohail Inayatullah is one of the most successful futurists of the last decade. His proposed method for futures studies, which is called Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), has attracted a lot of attention and has won futurists’ admiration. Although, Wendell Bell counts the study of epistemological foundations of futures studies as one of the major purposes in this field, unfortunately, no significant attempt has been made to clarify the epistemological foundation of CLA, up to this time. The primary purpose of this thesis is to relieve this weakness. Inayatullah calls his approach, in developing CLA, “critical”. On the other hand, Wendell Bell claims that Roy Bhaskar’s “critical realism” is an appropriate epistemological and ontological foundation for futures studies. These hints support the conjecture about the probable influence of Bhaskar on Inayatullah. But, has Inayatullah really been under the influence of Bhaskar? Some preparations are required to answer this question. The first chapter of this thesis is devoted to the introduction of futures studies and its history, purposes, and assumptions. The second chapter deals with Inayatullah’s viewpoint on futures studies and the position of CLA in it. Bhaskar’s theories will be introduced in the third chapter. Dealing with Bhaskar’s ideas clarifies the critical realism’s support of the major premises of futures studies. Moreover, according to his ideas, at least four prescriptions could be given for futures studies. The last chapter aggregates the previous ones and compares Bhaskar’s ideas with Inayatullah’s. In this chapter we will see that, firstly, the method which arises out of Bhaskar’s philosophy has a strong resemblance to CLA. Secondly, Inayatullah, theoretically, makes some claims which completely coincide with Bhaskar’s ideas, but, in his practical method, there is no trace of those claims in CLA. Finally, in Inayatullah’s narration of the inspiration sources of CLA, there are several unwarranted logical gaps. Although, Inayatullah does not mention Bhaskar’s name, these coincidences, logical gaps, and Inayatullah’s philosophical naivety support our speculation about the probable influence of Bhaskar on Inayatullah
  9. Keywords:
  10. Critical Realism ; Futures Studies ; Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) ; Social Science Philosophy ; Roy Bhaskar ; Sohail Inayatullah

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