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- Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
- Language: Farsi
- Document No: 42247 (09)
- University: Sharif University of Technology
- Department: Civil Engineering
- Advisor(s): Nasiri, Habibollah
- Abstract:
- Modelling passengers’ itinerary choice behaviour is valuable to understand the increasingly competitive airline market and predicting air travel demand. Research in the choice behaviour of air travellers has evolved to include an analytical focus on variation in the sensitivities of travellers to factors influencing itinerary choice. That is, some choice studies have moved beyond a focus on assumed representative, mean-level sensitivities toward a goal of representing the distribution of preferences across a sample. An important issue that remains is whether the insight gained in previous studies, which focussed on preferences in mature markets with relatively high per-capita rates of air travel activity, applies to the markets with low frequencies of airline patronage. This study centres on a survey of travellers in Tehran, Iran, a low-frequency air travel market. The analysis incorporates tests of a full range of distributions of random parameters for MMNL modelling to test the impacts of restricting distributions to allow only normality, confirming the potential to improve model fit with alternative distributions. The estimated distributions of WTP measures confirm the value of accounting for preference heterogeneity in the analysis of air itinerary choice behaviour in a low-frequency market, yielding lower mean WTP values relative to analysis that omits effects of preference heterogeneity. This study also proposes a novel technique for modelling air passengers’ choice behaviour and compares this technique with a basic form of discrete choice methods focusing on the performance of prediction. The new technique is Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA). It includes the extension of the classical rough set theory to qualitative reasoning in the preference-based passengers’ behaviour analysis. The proposed method uses a set of ‘‘if . . . then. . . ” decision rules as the preference model, to classify customers by a set of criteria and regular attributes. It determines the competitive position of an airline by understanding the behaviour of its passengers considering their perception of choice, and thus develops an appropriate marketing strategies. The prediction performance of this technique is compared with that of discrete choice.
- Keywords:
- Segmentation ; Discrete Choice Model ; Market Segmentation ; Air Transport ; Low-Frequency Market ; Travel Experience ; Dominance-based Rough Sets Approach (DRSA)
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مدل سازي انتخاب برنامه سفرهاي هوايي
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