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Proposed Method for Selecting the Most Suitable Contractor Using Risk Analysis

Shakiba Zahed, Hadi | 2012

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 43336 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Mortaheb, Momamad Mehdi
  7. Abstract:
  8. At present, with some exceptions, the contracts are awarded based on the least proposed price. The records show that this method has not been successful especially for the infrastructure projects. In other words the projects awarded this way have been completed with time and cost overruns. Most of the times, such projects have not satisfied the stakeholders' expectations or have had problems during operation phase. The goal of this research is to suggest a method for selecting the most suitable contractor, considering the proposed price as well as incorporating the delay and other risks based on Contractors' actual past performance in the completed projects. Before selecting the Contractor, risks of time and cost overrun can be calculated and included in the total cost of the project. Therfore, the Client can evaluate and select the suitable contractor based on delay and risks combined with proposed price. Along with other approaches, the present research uses interview and questionnaire tools to determine and classify the most important factors for evaluating the contractors that can enhance the probability of succes of the project execution. A multi-stage method is intrudused for awarding the contract on the grounds of risk-based analysis and decisions making. The findings of the research show that in addition to its main goal of selecting the most suitable contractor for the infrastructure projects, the proposed method can forecast the probable time and cost overruns and estimate the project actual time and cost more accurately. Furthermore in a case study performed, the contractor selected by the proposed method would complete the project with 15% time and cost overrun, while this figure would be 35% by using the ordinary method. The proposed forecasts can also help stakeholders to identify the risks affecting the project through value-risk study workshops and prepare an action plan to cope with the possible risks.

  9. Keywords:
  10. Multicriteria Decision Making ; Decision Making Under Risk ; Contractor Selection ; Criteria Assessment Contractor ; Decision Making Tree ; Contractors Evaluation ; Delay Risk

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