Using Time Series and Planning Uncertain Demand in Supply Chain with System Dynamics Approach

Please enable javascript in your browser.

Rezaei, Davoud | 2013

441 Viewed

Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
Language: Farsi
Document No: 43965 (01)
University: Sharif University of Technology
Department: Industrial Engineering
Advisor(s): Kianfar, Farhad
Abstract:
In the field of supply chain, management constantly seeks to adopt strategies for realizing its targeted objectives. The supply chain, therefore, includes integrated production-distribution processes with all effective parts where proper management requires a comprehensive and dynamic approach. It is necessary to meet required items at required time. This becomes more important with the supply systems providing items. On the other hand, the difficulty of supply chain management, decisions, and policy-making can be increased by a wide range of conditions such as changes in demand. Thus, a comprehensive approach is needed to take the present dynamics into account. The current paper develops a supply chain model through the system dynamics approach. In using this approach, the problem is to determine the relationship between variables being affected by different factors. One variable is demand uncertainty. Here, an ARIMA model is fitted with historical demand data, based on which the simulation structure of system dynamics model is modified. Finally, the simulated system dynamics model is utilized as a decision support tool for scheduling of periodic orders
Keywords:
Time Series Analysis ; System Dynamic ; Supply Chain ; Demand Uncertainty ; Demand Planning Uncertainty

No TOC