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Destination Choice Modeling For Shopping Trips; Case Study For The City of Shiraz

Rahimi, Ehsan | 2013

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 45556 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Samimi, Amir
  7. Abstract:
  8. The fratar model that is one of the most common models of travel distribution has some weak points. Due to its strong tendency to existing distribution and disregarding the zonal characteristics, this model is unable to consider sudden changes in plan on the horizon. In order to identify the variables affecting the distribution of travel, using the behavioral approach is vital. For this purpose, Multinomial Logit model is used for distribution of shopping trips in the city of Shiraz. The city of Shiraz is divided into 156 zones. If all zones be considered as the choice set for each traveler, the results of model won't be efficient. To address this problem, sampling should be done based on the importance of alternatives. Thus, likelihood function of logit model turn into conditional likelihood function. In the final model, the distance variable is significant with a negative sign. In addition, commercial land use variable and vehicle ownership as an interactive variable are significant with positive sign in the model. Finally, forecasts for all observations were compared with the fratar and destination choice models which developed with a sample of 30%. As well, forecasts were compared with observed distribution. Goodness of fit for the fratar model is equal to 0.36 and for destination choice model is equal to 0.14
  9. Keywords:
  10. Discrete Choice Model ; Destination Choice Model ; Travel Distribution ; Fratar Model ; Alternatives Sampling

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