Loading...

Development of a Model for Evaluation of Energy Resources and the Interaction between Energy and Economy

Adel Barkhordar, Zahra | 2014

711 Viewed
  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 45833 (08)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Mechanical Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Saboohi, Yadollah
  7. Abstract:
  8. To study the interaction between energy sector and the Iranian economy, an energy-economy model has been developed which itself is a part of an integrated model of Energy Planning Support System (EPSS). The model is a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model which evaluates the medium to long-term economic developments through investment decisions. Four groups of economic agents have been considered: households, firms, governments and foreign sectors. The economic behavior of each agent along with the institutional links among them has been modeled based on neoclassical theory of general equilibrium. Therefore, the model simulates the working of a market economy and solves for a set of prices that clears all markets.To validate the CGE model as a tool for development analysis, its performance has been evaluated. Parametric sensitivity analysis has been conducted to determine the importance and priorities of model parameters based on their contribution to the output variance. Then, the selected parameters have been endogenously estimated by means of inverse quantification of uncertainty. In addition, the robustness of model results with respect to the functional forms has been checked. In one scenario, the production function was represented by a CES function (a globally regular functional form) and in the other by a Translog function (a flexible functional form). The model results were found to be sensitive to the chosen functional form, especially in the oil sector. Finally, model results were validated through gauging the accuracy of the model's results in multiple consecutive periods. The ability of the model results in following historical variations has been assessed via a structural similarity index. The calculated index demonstrated that with the endogenously estimated parameters, the model performs well in tracking the changes that actually happened in 2001 to 2010.Analysis of CGE model results suggests that in the baseline scenario, GDP growth has a decreasing trend between 2010 and 2040. The key factor is shown to be total factor productivity which has been modeled as a function of exchange rate, ratio of trade to GDP and investment in R&D and education sectors.Since useful energy demand is the linkage between the economic model and the energy sector model, a two-stage useful energy demand system has been estimated for the household sector of Iran. In the first stage, the total expenditure of households is allocated among different groups of commodities (including aggregate energy expenditures) and in the second stage the total energy expenditure is divided among different types of useful energy. The estimated income and price elasticities confirm useful energy as a proxy for corresponding basic needs.
  9. Keywords:
  10. Exhaustible Energy Resources ; Validation ; Computable General Equilibrium ; Total Factor Productivity (TFP) ; Useful Energy ; Energy Demand ; Useful Energy Demand

 Digital Object List

 Bookmark

No TOC