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Risk Assessment of Power Plant Projects with Fuzzy Approach (Case study: Shirkooh Yazd Combined Cycle Power Plant)

Pourmohammadi, Sahar | 2014

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 46243 (01)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Industrial Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Shadrokh, Shahram
  7. Abstract:
  8. In this research, the risks of power plant projects are assessed with fuzzy approach. For this purpose, "Shirkooh Yazd combined cycle power plant" is chosen as the case study. First, the risks of power plant projects before the contract and during project execution are identified. Then these risks are categorized in a hierarchical breakdown structure. Subsequently, required information is collected from experienced professionals using questionnaires that used as the input data for risk qualitative analysis. In qualitative analysis, the risk probability and its impacts (containing time, cost and quality) are described by qualitative terms. After scaling them, the amount of each risk is achieved, and then all the risks are arranged in descending order.
    According to qualitative analysis, the most critical risks are changes in inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, lack of liquidity in the economy and lack of bank lending, political and military threats and sanctions, changes in government policies and inaccurate estimation of project costs during the contract. High quality data is very important to apply quantitative methods effectively. Sometimes it is not easy to obtain such high quality relative to the risks in some projects. This difficulty is because of the lack of collectability, the uniqueness and non repetitive nature of construction projects impede using probabilistic risk quantification approaches. Therefore the quantitative risk analysis using linguistic terms and fuzzy logic control is done and finally, certain amount of project risk is obtained. In our case study the absolute value of project risk is 50.50%. Furthermore, the impacts of this value on the time, cost and quality are 42.28%, 42.44% and 34.09%, respectively
  9. Keywords:
  10. Project Risk Management ; Fuzzy Logic Control ; Risk Identification ; Project Assessment ; Risk Assessment ; Powerplant Projects

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