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Developing a Model for Vehicle-kilometer Traveled Estimation in Urban Network: Case Study of Shiraz

Darzi, Aref | 2016

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 48585 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Kermanshah, Mohammad
  7. Abstract:
  8. One of the most important criteria in travel analysis is the vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT). The distance which personal cars, vans or other automobiles travel is measured through this criterion. In addition, the VKT is used in transportation planning, accident analysis, transportation budgets assignment, and estimation of automobile pollutions. In this work we process origin-destination data gathered in Shiraz, Iran to estimate the VKT. To this end, we incorporate the linear regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods. Through this research, data from origin-destination statistics of Shiraz, gathered by the transportation institute of Sharif University of Technology in 1378 has been used in order to produce and validate researches. Inferring from the results of these two methods, we conclude that GWR provides a more accurate description of the VKT. This fact is demonstrated by comparing the coefficient of determination (R2) and error sum of squares for the two methods. Also, in order to validate the modeling process, the bootstrap method has been employed. In order to apply this method, the efficient sample size has been identified and the performance of the prediction model has been analyzed thereafter using mean absolute error (MAE), root of mean square error (RMSE), and fitness graphs
  9. Keywords:
  10. Bootstrap Statistical Inference ; Linear Regression ; Geographically Wieghted Regression ; Shiraz ; Vehicle-Kilometer Traveled (VKT) ; Built Environment

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