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Uncertainty in trust: A risk-aware approach

Dorri Nogoorani, S ; Sharif University of Technology | 2016

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1142/S021848851650032X
  3. Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte Ltd , 2016
  4. Abstract:
  5. Uncertainty and its imposed risk have significant impacts on decision-making. However, both are disregarded in many trust-based applications. In this paper, we propose a risk-aware approach to explicitly take uncertainty of trust and its effects into account. Our approach consists of a trust, a confidence, and a risk model. We do not prescribe a specific trust model, and any probabilistic trust model can be empowered by our approach. The confidence model calculates the uncertainty of the trust model in the form of a confidence interval, and is independent of the inner-workings of the trust model. This interval is used by the utility-based risk model which assesses the effects of uncertainty on trust-based decisions. We evaluated our approach by a four-state HMM-based simulated trustee, and employed the Beta, HMM and evidence-based trust models. We proposed and compared different methods for calculating confidence intervals, as well as methods for determining the risk and opportunity of a trust-based interaction. The results demonstrate how our approach should be used to improve the correctness of decision-making in trust-based applications. According to the statistical analysis of the simulation results, confidence intervals can properly represent the trust value and its uncertainty, and strongly improve trust-based decisions
  6. Keywords:
  7. Probabilistic trust model ; Decision making ; Financial data processing ; Security of data ; Uncertainty analysis ; Confidence interval ; Confidence model ; Evidence-based ; Probabilistic trust models ; Risk and opportunity ; Trust modeling ; Trust-based interactions ; Uncertainty ; Risk assessment
  8. Source: International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowlege-Based Systems ; Volume 24, Issue 5 , 2016 , Pages 703-737 ; 02184885 (ISSN)
  9. URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S021848851650032X