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A Model Based on System Dynamics and Decision Tree for Supply Chain Risk Management, Case Study: Book Supply Chain in Iran

Dorani, Kiumars | 2017

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 49637 (01)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Industrial Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Kianfar, Farhad
  7. Abstract:
  8. Decision Tree is used to analyze situations with sequential decisions. Applying Decision tree method in such situations leads to identifying the best sequence of decisions. On the other hand, System Dynamics is a powerful method to gain useful insight into situations of complexity, interconnections, feedback loops nonlinearities and time delays. System Dynamics is able to model complexities and interconnections of situations and provide precise understanding about it. Therefore, combination of these two methods could be very effective in analysis of problems that firstly, comprise of sequential decisions with multiple uncertainty and secondly, illustrate complex behavior. Supply chain is one of the situations that have above mentioned characteristics. In supply chain we always confront with sequential decisions that are made based on uncertainty in demand and supply. On the other hand, there are various stakeholders in supply chain which is a complex situation with multiple interconnections. In this research is tried to propose a combined model based on System Dynamics and Decision Tree to provide more precise analysis of supply chain. The proposed model, finally, is applied to analyze book supply chain in Iran
  9. Keywords:
  10. System Dynamic ; Supply Chain ; Decision Making Tree ; Supply Chain Risk ; Book Supply

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