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System Dynamics Modeling of Supply Chain And Scrutiny of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain and the Case Study of a Home Appliance Manufacturing Company

Salehi, Omid | 2017

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 50903 (01)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Industrial Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Haji, Alireza
  7. Abstract:
  8. Today, many organizations and companies are confronted with enormous competition and uncertainty as a result of factors such as political issues, demand fluctuations, technological change, and financial instability As well as increasing business competitiveness, organizations focus on their core activities and lead to the use of outsourcing strategies, These factors are the cause of the formation of the supply chain And the lack of planning and identifying the factors that cause instability in the supply chain leads to its inaccurate performance. World-class organizations today have found that unintegrated production and distribution processes and poor communication with suppliers and customers are enough to defeat them And managing the whole chain is a key factor for successful business. The impact of an organization plan on the entire supply chain is unpredictable before it is implemented. Simulation provides a performance evaluation field before running a project. In the present study, due to the importance of the materials and components supply, production and distribution, we intend to model, provide and select facilities (distribution centers and inventories) in the three-level supply chain with several suppliers, a manufacturer and several facility facilities with We look at the dynamics of the system. Also, the supply chain of a home appliance manufacturer is considered as a case study. This research, based on the dynamics approach of the system, considering the factors affecting the supply chain, examines the relationships between the factors and their effect on the whole system in the form of a causal circuit. One of the most common phenomena in the supply chain, due to fluctuations in demand, is the phenomenon of bullwhip effect up in this study to reduce this undesirable effect to the correct prediction of demand and fluctuations in it For this we will use the Fuzzy Stacked Moving Average Moving Motion Detection Model (FARIMA). In this research, a multi-objective production-distribution planning model is presented considering the existing limitations with the objectives of minimizing lost sales and system costs. Then, we simulate the production-distribution model with the system dynamics to study the effect of external factors on the supply chain and analyze the sensitivity of key system variables So that it can proceed on the basis of proper planning for the goals of the organization and by Using this model, we will present strategies to reduce the impact of the whistle on the system
  9. Keywords:
  10. Supply Chain ; Simulation ; System Dynamic ; Bullwhip Effect ; Mathematical Programming ; Production-Distribution Planning ; Fuzzy Stacking Moving Averaye Self-Aggregation (FARIMA)

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