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Consequence Modelling and Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Oil Spills in the Marine Waters

Amir Heidari, Payam | 2019

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  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 51725 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Raie, Mohammad
  7. Abstract:
  8. Different causes in the exploration, production and transport of oil in the marine environment result in oil spill events. Since elimination of the probability of occurrence of spills is not possible, it is important to have a plan to control the risk of oil spills by optimal response. In this research, a general stucture is presented for the DSS required for oil spill response planning. This system can be used for evaluation of the effectiveness of response drills, and risk-based ranking of receptor areas and spill sources. Ranking based on risk is realized through probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment. The applicability of the proposed system is examined in differnet case studies in the Persian Gulf and Kattegat Sea, and the developed model is used for quantification of uncertainty in the risk. Based on sensitivity analysis results, spill start-time is the most important factor among different inputs of the risk model. The results of risk assessment in Persian Gulf indicate that the frequency of spill in a source has a significant effect on its mean risk level. Based on quantitative results and produced risk maps for Persian Gulf, the risk posed by Iranian offshore oil wells to the southern (Arabian) shoreline is greater than that to the northern (Iranian) shoreline. This is related to the location of the wells and the pattern of environmental forcing elements (wind and current) in the area under study
  9. Keywords:
  10. Oil Spill ; Concequence Modeling ; Probabilistic Assessment ; Risk Map ; Decision Making Support System ; Persian Gulf ; Risk Assessment

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