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Application of a Multi-agent Optimization Model in Pre-disaster Planning with Consideration of Overall Loss: Case of Bam 2003 Earthquake

Asgharpour, Sina | 2019

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 52085 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Poorzahedy, Hossain
  7. Abstract:
  8. Earthquake is one of the deadliest natural hazards that has taken more than 400 thousand lives, only in the last decade. Iran is one of the countries that are at high risk of potential death toll resulting from such hazards, firstly because it is located in a potentially high-risk zone, the so-called earthquake belt and, secondly because of its problems in the management of disastrous situations (especially, pre-disaster management). Bam 2003 earthquake is one of the most painful experiences in this context. So, in this research, emphasizing on the practical use of optimization models, an existing model is applied on the damaged area of the Bam earthquake. The mentioned model considers the cooperation between the main three actions (Building Renovation, Emergency Response, and Transportation Network Improvement), and forecasts the probable death tolls after an earthquake. Also, using previous studies, this study illustrates the consequences of an earthquake in terms of “Overall Loss,” losses in addition to the death toll, in monetary units. So, the main goal of this study is to determine the consequences of the different policies of budget allocation to the three main actions mentioned above and compare them to do-nothing option if these policies are implemented from 1995 on. So, population and transportation network data of the region in 1995 are collected, and a heuristic algorithm for the solution to the problem is presented and implemented on the case, considering the uncertainty in both travel demand and supply in chaotic situations right after the incident. According to the results, in the long-run, the most efficient way of saving people is to renovate their vulnerable buildings. It is found that one monetary unit of investment in building renovation saves 5.8 monetary units of overall loss. Also, the budget increase only in the transportation sector has no effect on the reduction of overall loss. Furthermore, saving people by the emergency response after the incident is the most economical way to save lives, but the number of saved people has an upper bound. Generally, a total investment of 82 billion Tomans saves 495 billion Tomans (Iranian currency) of overall loss
  9. Keywords:
  10. Earthquake Mitigation Plans ; Vulnerable Buildings ; Emergency Response ; Multi-Agent Optimization ; Overall Loss ; Bam Earthquake

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