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Optimal Two-Phase Vaccine Allocation under Uncertain Impacts and Different Transition Rates

Dodangeh, Sana | 2020

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 52590 (01)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Industrial Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Najafi, Mehdi; Rafiee, Majid
  7. Abstract:
  8. Infectious diseases have always threatened the health of human beings. One of the most important causes of mortality in human societies is infectious diseases. The spread of these diseases in society, even if does not lead to death, can have devastating effects on society. Influenza is one of the infectious diseases that has attracted much attention today. It can be mild or severe and even cause hospitalization and death. Therefore, controlling and preventing the epidemic of this disease is very important. Epidemic models are commonly used to simulate the spread of infectious diseases. In this study to identify the influenza outbreak, a stochastic multigroup SEIR model with the migration between different geographical regions is proposed which considers different migration rates and transmission rates between these regions. Then a two-stage stochastic model for vaccine allocation to different regions in two phases is presented. In this model, the first phase of vaccination occurs in all regions and the second phase occurs due to the outcome of the first phase. Then, the problem is solved by considering fifteen counties using the enhanced sample average approximation method. Finally, we conclude in this study Two-Phase Vaccination Policy Just as cost effective as single-phase vaccination, it is equally effective in controlling influenza and also, considering different rates of disease transmission and interaction between different regions makes the model closer to real-world conditions
  9. Keywords:
  10. Influenza ; Epidemic Models ; Health Care System ; Basic Reproduction Number ; Two Phase Vaccination

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