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Is Driving More Dangerous in Holidays than Normal Days?Investigating the Effect of Holidays on Road Accidents in Iran

Kushkbaghi, Maryam | 2020

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 52717 (44)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Management and Economics
  6. Advisor(s): Vesal, Mohammad
  7. Abstract:
  8. Traffic accidents are one of the main causes of death in Iran. Between 2005 to 2019, 20,000 people were killed and 300,000 were injured on average annually. About 65 percent of all traffic fatalities over the past seven years has been on intercity roads. Finding patterns of accidents on specific days, such as holidays, would help the planners prevent traffic accidents. In this study, using police accident data, traffic counts of Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization, and meteorological data of Iran Meteorological Organization during 2011 to 2018, we study the effect of official holidays, and the days before, after and between two holidays on the rate and severity of road accidents in Iran using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions. The results show that on official holidays, the accident rate and severity increase by 9 and 5 percent, respectively. The economic cost of a single holiday is estimated to be US$ 265291 based on purchasing power parity at January 2020). The day between the two holidays and the day after the official holiday increase severity of crashes by 6 and 3 percent, respectively and the rate of accidents by 6 percent. The economic cost of the day between two holidays and the days before and after holidays are estimated to be 226971, 36845and 169491 dollars higher than normal days, respectively
  9. Keywords:
  10. Road Accidents ; Partial Least Squares (PLS)Regression ; Rural Road ; Ordinary Linear Regression ; Holidays ; Traffic Accidents

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