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A state-of-the-art model for spatial and stochastic oil spill risk assessment: A case study of oil spill from a shipwreck

Amir Heidari, P ; Sharif University of Technology | 2019

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.037
  3. Publisher: Elsevier Ltd , 2019
  4. Abstract:
  5. Oil spills are serious environmental issues that potentially can cause adverse effects on marine ecosystems. In some marine areas, like the Baltic Sea, there is a large number of wrecks from the first half of the 20th century, and recent monitoring and field work have revealed release of oil from some of these wrecks. The risk posed by a wreck is governed by its condition, hazardous substances contained in the wreck and the state of the surrounding environment. Therefore, there is a need for a common standard method for estimating the risks associated with different wrecks. In this work a state-of-the-art model is presented for spatial and stochastic risk assessment of oil spills from wrecks, enabling a structured approach to include the complex factors affecting the risk values. A unique feature of this model is its specific focus on uncertainty, facilitating probabilistic calculation of the total risk as the integral expected sum of many possible consequences. A case study is performed in Kattegat at the entrance region to the Baltic Sea to map the risk from a wreck near Sweden. The developed model can be used for oil spill risk assessment in the marine environment all over the world. © 2019
  6. Keywords:
  7. Oil spill ; Probabilistic approach ; Uncertainty ; Ecosystems ; Marine pollution ; Oil spills ; Risk perception ; Stochastic models ; Stochastic systems ; Environmental issues ; Hazardous substances ; Oil spill risk assessments ; Probabilistic approaches ; Shipwreck ; Structured approach ; Surrounding environment ; Risk assessment ; Fieldwork ; Marine ecosystem ; Model test ; Oil spill response ; Pollution monitoring ; Spatial analysis ; Stochasticity ; Article ; Autumn ; Calculation ; Case study ; Controlled study ; Denmark ; Diffusion ; Environmental exposure ; Environmental impact ; Geographic distribution ; Monte Carlo method ; Priority journal ; Probability ; Seasonal variation ; Sensitivity analysis ; Spatiotemporal analysis ; Stochastic model ; Dangerous goods ; Procedures ; Ship ; Atlantic Ocean ; Baltic Sea ; Kattegat ; Petroleum Pollution ; Ships ; Sweden
  8. Source: Environment International ; Volume 126 , 2019 , Pages 309-320 ; 01604120 (ISSN)
  9. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412018324061