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Analysis of Temporal Stability and Transferability of Trip Distribution Models Considering Urban Development Patterns: The Case of Shiraz

Haghighi, Mohammad | 2021

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 53772 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Shafahi, Yousef
  7. Abstract:
  8. Trip distribution is the second step of the four-step travel demand modeling. Like other travel demand models, the most important objective of trip distribution models generation is forecasting the travel data of a year in the future. On the one hand, extensive changes in cities’ urban structures and people’s travel behavior during the years brings up the essential question of how temporally stable and transferable trip distribution models are? This question becomes even more important when the more complex structure of trip distribution models compared to models such as trip generation is considered. On the other hand, it is logical to assume that the consideration of the effects of urban development on traveling patterns through applying appropriate parameters in trip distribution models’ structures may help their temporal transferability. In this research, initially, the travel data gathered from Origin-Destination surveys conducted through Shiraz Comprehensive Transportation Studies in years 1990, 1999 and 2015 have been used to investigate the temporal stability and transferability of different proposed work trip distribution models. It has subsequently been tried to improve these indices by applying changes in the structure of models which are justifiable according to the urban development procedure through the time period of study. Finally, the trip distribution models for educational and shopping trips have been analyzed for the purpose of comparison between models for different trip purposes regarding transferability through time. The results indicate that the generated trip distribution models based on the data gathered in each year do not show enough strength in estimating the Origin-Destination matrices of the forthcoming years. However, the results also illustrate that a logical proportionality could be observed between the existing errors and the intensity of urban development during the period of study. Such a proportionality could be utilized in order to ameliorate the performance of trip distribution models in the prediction of future trip data and enhance the similarity between the observed and estimated Origin-Destination matrices
  9. Keywords:
  10. Urban Development ; Travel Behavior ; Temporal Transferability ; Trip Distribution Modelling ; UrbanTransport ; Shiraz ; Travel Distribution

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