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A Langevin equation for the rates of currency exchange based on the Markov analysis

Farahpour, F ; Sharif University of Technology | 2007

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2007.06.048
  3. Publisher: 2007
  4. Abstract:
  5. We propose a method for analyzing the data for the rates of exchange of various currencies versus the U.S. dollar. The method analyzes the return time series of the data as a Markov process, and develops an effective equation which reconstructs it. We find that the Markov time scale, i.e., the time scale over which the data are Markov-correlated, is one day for the majority of the daily exchange rates that we analyze. We derive an effective Langevin equation to describe the fluctuations in the rates. The equation contains two quantities, D(1) and D(2), representing the drift and diffusion coefficients, respectively. We demonstrate how the two coefficients are estimated directly from the data, without using any assumptions or models for the underlying stochastic time series that represent the daily rates of exchange of various currencies versus the U.S. dollar. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
  6. Keywords:
  7. Differential equations ; Economic analysis ; Markov processes ; Time series analysis ; Currencies ; Diffusion coefficients ; Langevin equation ; Rates of exchange ; Financial data processing
  8. Source: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications ; Volume 385, Issue 2 , 2007 , Pages 601-608 ; 03784371 (ISSN)
  9. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378437107007169