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Determination and Simulation of Socio-Economic Urban Water Conservation Behavior Using Structural Equation Modeling and Agent Based Modeling

Raoof, Mohammad Amin | 2021

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 55216 (09)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Civil Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Danesh Yazdi, Mohammad
  7. Abstract:
  8. Water shortage, population growth, and high levels of urban water demand are among main challenges of water demand management for developing countries and cities, and also for megacities. Urban water management systems, as they are complex adaptive systems, complex interactions exist among elements affecting the system. In other words, action from a subpart can trigger other parts, and also the whole system to respond in reaction. In this study, socio-economic water consumption behavior of households is studies and simulated in an agent-based modeling platform. First, households are interviewed and, using the qualitative data extracted from interviews and also the behavioral science theories, a structured questionnaire is then designed and distributed amont 877 people of Tehran. Analysing the quantitative data using structural equation modeling, reveals greater determining power of behavioral theories with reliance on altruistic and pro-environment drivers, compared with self-centric rational theories. Results of agent-based modeling simulation, in form of yearly water conservation time series for Tehran and from 2011 to 2021, are compared against observed data. Results reveal decrease of per capita water consumption but increase in total water consumption, which highlights the role of population growth. Developed model has a maximum absolute relative error of 20 % compared to observed data; however, the persistant error present in obseverd data can be significant and game changing.
  9. Keywords:
  10. Urban Water Management ; Agent Based Modeling ; Water Conservation ; Structural Equations Modeling ; Behavioral Models ; Socio-Economic Water Consumption Behavior

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