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Developing a Model to Assess the Optimal Utilization of Energy Resources in the Context of Sustainable Energy Development

Ghadaksaz, Hesam | 2022

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  1. Type of Document: Ph.D. Dissertation
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 55579 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Saboohi, Yadollah
  7. Abstract:
  8. Sustainable development of the energy system requires policies for ensuring reliable access to energy services with the lowest economic and environmental costs. Despite owning abundant reserves of fossil resources, Iran has witnessed an imbalance in the supply and demand of energy carriers, especially gas, gasoline, and electricity, over the past years. Within a comprehensive and detailed research, the optimal pattern of utilizing non-renewable energy resources along with renewables is evaluated in the context of sustainable energy development. The developed tool based on the integrated assessment approach can be used as a scientific analytic measure for the implementation of the desired policies on the development of the energy system. Integrated energy and economy assessment helps examine the balance between exploiting energy resources and utilizing energy technologies considering macroeconomic variables. The relationship between GDP and energy consumption has been investigated, first. The results of using the ARDL cointegration test and ARDL-ECM models indicate that the energy consumption of the industrial sector is the most reliable variable to explain the changes in GDP. In addition, the results of the analysis show that the exergy variable is not better than the energy variable in explaining changes in GDP. In the meantime, the key factors influencing the demand for energy services have been taken into consideration and the modeling results indicate that climate change will increase the cooling demand of Iranian households by one-third in 1430. In the short term, prioritized solutions to reduce energy intensity and greenhouse gas emissions include repowering active gas power plants as well as controlling flaring and leakage. In the medium term, the total costs of the energy system will increase from about 52 billion dollars in 1400 to about 80 billion dollars in 1430. Still, the increase in energy system costs will be decreasing, and this is due to efficiency improvement, including the increase in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in the demand for services. Applying carbon tax in different scenarios, GDP will decrease from 0.5 to 2.5% in 1430 in the absence of tax revenue redistribution. In the meantime, the increase in investment since 1420 and the replacement of capital with more energy consumption will lead to the reduction of GDP at a lower rate. However, the replacement was not enough to stop the decline of GDP. However, the decrease in GDP can be compensated by redistribution of tax revenues as the volume of tax revenue has decreased above the GDP in all the years of the modeling period. The higher volume of revenues compared to the GDP loss in 1410 is significant, and a careful assessment shows the fact that facilitating the transfer of technology and removing investment restrictions play a key role in the sustainable development of the energy system of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
  9. Keywords:
  10. Energy System ; Greenhouse Gases ; Gas Propagation ; Integrated Assesment Model ; Sustainable Development ; ARDL Method ; Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ; Connection Energy and Economy ; Optimal Operation ; Exhaustible Energy Resources

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