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Probabilistic framework to quantify the seismic resilience of natural gas distribution networks

Baratian, A ; Sharif University of Technology | 2022

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  1. Type of Document: Article
  2. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103282
  3. Publisher: Elsevier Ltd , 2022
  4. Abstract:
  5. Natural Gas Distribution Networks (NGDNs) are complex infrastructure systems that play an essential role in ensuring the welfare and prosperity of many communities by serving their residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. Earthquakes can damage the critical components of NGDNs and disrupt their services. The disruption of NGDN services can lead to significant economic and social losses. These losses can be mitigated by adopting appropriate resilience enhancement measures. This study puts forward a probabilistic framework to quantify the seismic resilience of NGDNs. This framework comprises multiple interconnected probabilistic models that work in harmony to characterize the earthquake-induced damage to NGDN components, their post-earthquake recovery process, and the losses incurred by the community due to the disruption in the natural gas flow. It considers various uncertainties, including those associated with the earthquake location, time and intensity, the response of various NGDN components and the earthquake-induced damage they may sustain, the duration and cost of the recovery process, and the demand for natural gas during the recovery process. To appropriately model the complex behavior of the NGDNs, their dependency on power networks is also considered. A novel index for quantifying the resilience of infrastructure systems is also introduced that considers the recovery duration in addition to the losses incurred by the community. To showcase the capabilities of the proposed framework, it is used to evaluate the seismic resilience of the natural gas distribution network of a virtual community. This framework can be used to evaluate and compare various resilience enhancement strategies. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd
  6. Keywords:
  7. Direct and indirect losses ; Earthquake ; Natural gas distribution networks ; Performance recovery ; Seismic resilience
  8. Source: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ; Volume 81 , 2022 ; 22124209 (ISSN)
  9. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420922005015