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A Systems Dynamics Approach to Simulate Epidemic Spread of Covid-19

Sepehri, Sepehr | 2022

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 55913 (06)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Chemical and Petroleum Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Roosta Azad, Reza
  7. Abstract:
  8. The outbreak of a type of corona virus in 2019, plunged the world into a huge panic. Businesses entered into an unprecedented recession and economic growth was severely reduced. Millions of people have been infected and unfortunately countless numbers have also lost their lives. This which quickly crossed the borders of countries, proved how much a not-so-deadly infectious disease can affect human life. Another point that was revealed was the importance of epidemiology knowledge. Since the beginning of the outbreak of this disease, scientists in this field have tried to predict the state of the disease in the coming days by presenting models. Many countries formed special working groups to model the growth process of this disease, which was called Covid-19. The author of this research carefully monitored the situation from the first days of the outbreak of this disease, and after some research, it was decided to use the systems dynamics method for this modeling. Systems dynamics and its research method is generally known as the mathematical language of systems thinking. This approach is known for its many applications in strategic thinking and management science. However, the author believes that the introduction of such thoughts into bioengineering can create tremendous effects in the modeling of living phenomena.This thinking can create acceptable modeling while maintaining the complexities of the studied biological phenomenon. The availability of software such as Vansim, which are free for use in scientific research, can be considered as a positive aspect in this field. Although it is difficult to make the relevant model, however, it is possible to make changes in it easily and it makes it possible to create different results in a short time
  9. Keywords:
  10. Systems Dynamics ; COVID-19 ; Corona Virus ; Simulation ; Modeling ; Epidemic Spreading ; Bioengineering

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