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Analysis and Modeling of Air Pollution using Big Data Methods in Tehran City

Abrishambaf, Arman | 2023

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  1. Type of Document: M.Sc. Thesis
  2. Language: Farsi
  3. Document No: 56072 (46)
  4. University: Sharif University of Technology
  5. Department: Energy Engineering
  6. Advisor(s): Boroushaki, Mehrdad; Avami, Akram; Nahvijou, Azin
  7. Abstract:
  8. Air pollution is a prevalent and pressing issue in Tehran, with significant impacts on both the environment and human health. this study uses statistical techniques, such as Pearson correlation, to determine the direction of influence of meteorological parameters on air pollutant concentrations, and Convergent Cross Mapping to quantify the causal relationship between meteorological parameters and ambient air pollutant concentrations, as well as feedback effects. Additionally, the research delves into the correlation between consumption of fossil fuels and air pollutants, as well as the relationship between lung cancer incidence and mortality by histological subtype and long-term exposure to PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO, NOx, and NO2 in Tehran. The results indicate that during the summer, SO2 has a notable impact on the concentration of PM2.5, while during the winter, the effect of NO2 on PM2.5 is substantial. During hot seasons, CO and NOx play more prominent role in ozone production, and in cold seasons, they contribute more to the production of PM2.5. The relationship between temperature and PM2.5 is consistent in terms of the magnitude of effect, but the direction of effect varies, increasing in hot seasons and decreasing in cold seasons. Precipitation has a mitigating effect on all seasons, and the degree of this effect is particularly pronounced in relation to PM10 during the autumn season. Ozone levels show strong positive correlation with temperature and moderate negative correlation with humidity. During the colder months, humidity plays the most significant role in affecting ozone pollution. During the warmer months, wind velocity has a substantial impact on the concentration of PM10 and PM2.5. Additionally, unfavorable atmospheric conditions, such as instability, can contribute to exacerbating these concentrations, leading to higher levels of PM10 and PM2.5 during the hot seasons. A strong correlation exists between the consumption of diesel fuel and the concentration of SO2. However, the correlation between suspended PM10 and the consumption of fossil fuels in Tehran is found to be weak, indicating that this sector does not significantly contribute to the concentration of PM10. The statistical analysis has revealed a noteworthy correlation between natural gas consumption and the concentration of nitrogen oxides. This correlation can be attributed to the extensive utilization of natural gas in high-temperature combustion sectors, such as power generation, manufacturing, and industrial processes. The results of a study on the relationship between air pollution in Tehran and the incidence of lung cancer indicate that an increase of 10 μg/m³ of PM2.5is associated with a 19% (95% CI: 9-31) and 43% (95% CI: 22-86) increase in the relative risk of adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, respectively. PM10, PM2.5, SO2, and NOx have been identified as pollutants that are positively associated with lung cancer mortality. An increase of 10 units in any of these pollutants results in 2-36% increase in relative risk. This study can provide valuable information to policymakers in developing evidence-based programs and policies aimed at mitigating and preventing air pollution by investigating the effects of energy consumption on air pollution and the impact of air pollution on human health
  9. Keywords:
  10. Meteorological Parameters ; Fossil Fuels ; Lung Cancer ; Air Pollution ; Tehran City ; Particulate Matter Less than 2.5 mm ; Big Data Analytics

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